The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win - Daniel Kaluuya "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Could Win - Paul Raci "Sound of Metal" or Sacha Baron Cohen "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Should Win - Daniel Kaluuya "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Commentary - Daniel Kaluuya has now won the SAG, BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice. But in none of those races did he face his own co-star Lakeith Stanfield, who got a well-deserved, yet still surprising nomination in this category. We have seen co-stars compete and it not affect the outcome of the race. Sam Rockwell won with Woody Harrelson nominated. Catherine Zeta-Jones won with Queen Latifah nominated. I think Kaluuya is strong enough to overcome his co-star. If he is not, watch out for Raci or Cohen, but I would be shocked if that actually happened. 

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win - Yuh-jung Youn "Minari"

Could Win - Maria Bakalova "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" and Glenn Close "Hillbilly Elegy"

Should Win - Yuh-jung Youn "Minari" 

Commentary - YJ is so damn good in Minari. She is funny, touching, and just lights up the screen. She is also a Korean legend, and I think its great to see her finally get recognition on an international level. At one point it was Maria Bakalova that was set to win this, and then for awhile I thought that the power of Glenn Close would overcome her terrible movie. But after winning SAG and BAFTA, and Minari doing so well across the board, I think this is YJ's to lose.