The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Picture and Best Director

Best Picture

Will Win - Nomadland

Could Win - Minari or The Trial of the Chicago 7

Should Win - The last two years, for the first time in a long time, I actually predicted Best Picture correctly. I knew that Green Book and Parasite were going to win. I felt it. This year, conventional wisdom says Chloe Zhao's Nomadland is going to win. It won the PGA, DGA, Globe, and BAFTA. But preferential ballot wisdom tells us that that is not a guarantee. Look no further than La La Land, The Revenant, and 1917. But in each of those years, it was clear who the second place film was. They had the love and the screenplay and/or the actors like Green Book, Parasite, and Moonlight. The two films that have the best chance to beat Nomadland are Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Both got SAG Ensemble nods, and Trial won. Both have screenplay nominations. Both also feel like the natural preferential ballot alternatives. But Minari has won almost nothing in the guilds except for YJ. Trial did win SAG and ACE Eddie, but has little beyond that. Most importantly, every Best Picture winner has either won Best Director, Best Screenplay, or both. You have to go back to 2002 and Chicago to find a Best Picture winner that won neither. Of course that film also won six awards, even if it missed those two. There is a good chance that Trial only wins one for Editing (and I am close to switching back to Sound of Metal). Minari is most likely going to win just YJ. Best Original Screenplay is in reach for both of them, but that award, with the exception of Sorkin at the Globe, which has a spotty crossover history with the Oscars, has been dominated by Emerald Fennell, who has won at BAFTA, Critics Choice, WGA, and Indie Spirits. I think its going to win at the Oscars as well. Now, if Chung or Sorkin win Original Screenplay, watch out, an upset is brewing. But if they don't, then my guess is that Nomadland, despite its potential troubles on the preferential ballot, is going to continue its winning streak. It is the best film of the bunch, has dominated the season, and without a clear number two, I have to bet on this season's number one. 

Best Director

Will Win - Chloe Zhao "Nomadland"

Could Win - Lee Issac Chung "Minari"

Should Win - Chloe Zhao "Nomadland" 

Commentary - Chloe Zhao has won everything, I mean everything. I think she is so solid, that I am not really sure who is second place. I put in Lee Isaac Chung as a potential spoiler, because Minari is a potential spoiler for Best Picture. But I would be absolutely jaw-dropped if they don't pick Chloe Zhao to make way overdue Oscar history.