The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects

Best Cinematography

Will Win - Joshua James Richards "Nomadland" 

Could Win - Erik Messerschmidt "Mank"

Should Win - Nomadland or Mank 

Commentary - This whole season, including BAFTA, Nomadland has been cruising to an Oscar for Best Cinematography. Then this weekend, the ASC threw us a curveball with Mank beating out the front runner. This isn't too surprising, I'm honestly surprised that Mank, with its brilliant black and white shots, hasn't challenged Nomadland, an amazingly shot film in its own right. That being said though, the ASC has often gone its own way over the years, and is not the most reliable Oscar predictor. The best predictor, a streak that has held up since Life of Pi in 2012 has been BAFTA, so I am sticking with Nomadland, although this race has just got more interesting. 

Best Costume Design

Will Win - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Could Win - Mank, Emma, or Mulan

Should Win - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Commentary - The costumes of Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, designed by the legendary, Oscar-winning Ann Roth, have done amazingly well throughout this season including winning the CDG period award and BAFTA. Mank, Emma, and Mulan (who won the CDG fantasy award) are all possibilities, but I would be shocked if Ma Rainey's lost here. 

Best Film Editing

Will Win - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Could Win - Sound of Metal

Should Win - Sound of Metal

Commentary - Sound of Metal won the BAFTA, which had me leaning towards it for the Oscar. Then the ACE Eddie went to Trial. In a tough race, I am leaning towards Trial, as the stronger BP contender. But this is one I could switch, because at BAFTA, that was everyone voting vs. just the editors. 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Could Win - Hillbilly Elegy

Should Win - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Commentary - Like in Costume Design, Ma Rainey has dominated this category, winning BAFTA and the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild. Viola Davis' transformation alone is worthy. I think it wins in a walk.

Best Production Design

Will Win - Mank

Could Win - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Should Win - Mank

Commentary - Mank's recreation of the Golden Age of Hollywood was stunning. It won at ADG and BAFTA. I'm also glad that this film doesn't walk away empty-handed. I think that as time goes on, Mank will be remembered more fondly, and it's nice to think that voters recognized it in some way. 

Best Visual Effects

Will Win - Tenet

Could Win - The Midnight Sky or Mulan

Should Win - Tenet

Commentary -  This category has the few blockbusters in this crazy year, but no Best Picture nominees. When this happens, you can have an Ex Machina surprise. The Midnight Sky did well with VES and Tenet won at BAFTA. Tenet was a bit disappointing, but I think that it is the biggest name of the bunch and has the broader appeal of the five. But don't be surprised if there is a surprise in an unpredictable year.