Wednesday, July 29, 2020

2020 Emmy Nomination Analysis

Drama
The Drama Series category had a major shocker with the inclusion of The Mandalorian. With only one acting nomination, this show got in based on popularity and its incredible strength in the technical categories. This is also a huge win for Disney+, whose marketing campaign got them a huge win today. Stranger Things was also able to get back in despite little buzz. I was also kind of surprised at Killing Eve's return, although its nomination count dropped, so clearly voters are starting to move on. Speaking of moving on, The Handmaid's Tale and Better Call Saul, while still getting into Drama Series, did dramatically worse than expected, including two of the biggest shocks of the morning, the snubs of Bob Odenkirk and Elisabeth Moss, as well as less nominees in supporting (Jonathan Banks' snub was a shocker too). For Drama Series, this looks like a race between Succession and Ozark, with The Crown as a spoiler. In the acting categories, you saw surprise inclusions like Zendaya, but that BAFTA nod earlier this week did show more support than thought previously. The Morning Show got in both Steve Carell and Mark Duplass in a bit of a surprise, especially considering that it did well across the board, expect for the Drama Series category, where it was shockingly left out. I was also surprised by Nicholas Braun's inclusion, showing real strength for Succession, and Samira Wiley. I know she is a previous winner for this role, but she was not really on most pundit's radar for a nod this year. In the Guest categories, there were not any jaw-droppers. Writing and Directing helped confirm the top three, with multiple nods across the board. I was also happy to see the Homeland finale get a well-deserved directing nomination. 

Comedy
Schitt's Creek. Schitt's Creek. Schitt's Creek. 15 nominations is a stunning haul for this show, and it got nominations in categories I don't think anyone expected. Of course Maisel got a whopping 20 as well, but there are definitely some cracks in the popularity. No Jane Lynch, no Michael Zegan, not more in guest categories, no writing for the second year in a row. It can obviously still win, but Schitt's Creek is looking more and more like this year's Fleabag. I was so saddened to see Better Things once again snubbed, but I was also so thrilled to see Insecure get a whopping 9 nominations this year, including getting in both Issa Rae and Yvonne Orji. I'm glad voters finally really took notice of that show's quality, it was about time. While Dead to Me and Curb Your Enthusiasm did worse than expected (seriously Curb gets no major nods but still gets in over Ramy, Better Things, The Great, and so many other quality shows), but The Good Place did so much better, not only getting in D'Arcy Carden, but adding a well-deserved nod for William Jackson Harper. Cecily Strong was a real surprise for SNL, which continues to flex its Emmy muscle year in and year out. The Guest Actress category was not too shocking, but the Guest Actor race is drastically different than expected. I did not predict Driver, or Patel (I don't think anyone did), and the exclusion of John Mulaney was odd, and a huge snub. The writing and directing categories were particularly interesting. The Great, Will & Grace, Ramy and Modern Family all getting nods over so many series contenders shows that this comedy race was probably tighter than we thought for those eight slots. Finally, the best moment of the morning was the inclusion of What We Do in the Shadows and its whopping three writing nominations. I would have loved to see some of the cast members nominated as well, but this is a great first step, shows Taika Waititi's growing prestige in Hollywood (he also got nominated for Narrator), and recognizes a really awesome comedy series. 


TV Movie/Limited Series
I was proud I got all five Limited Series nominees and 4/5 TV Movie nominees right. In the lead categories, I did better than I expected. I was surprised that neither Merritt Wever nor Kaitlyn Dever were nominated for Unbelievable. The Supporting categories though were a real shock. Three Watchmen actors but no Tim Blake Nelson. Tituss Burgess wasn't too shocking, but McDermott beating out Mantello and Criss for that slot was surprising, and I was really surprised by John Slattery's snub. I honestly though he and Nelson could contend for the win. Although Slattery's snub was also part of a muted response to Mrs. America, especially compared to Watchmen's 24 nominations, which led the whole field yesterday morning. In Supporting Actress, the fact that Tracey Ullman beat out Sarah Paulson and Rose Byrne was jaw-dropping (I was not shocked by Uzo Aduba, even though I didn't predict her). In the Writing and Directing, it was once again clear that Watchmen is king. 

Reality/Variety
Boring as usual, but really happy to see A Black Lady Sketch Show get into Sketch, and I'm hoping for an upset. 

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