Will Win - Green Book
Should Win - BlacKkKlansman
Could Win - Roma, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther
Commentary - Seriously, I could probably make a case for almost all of the nominees for Best Picture. I think Vice is out. I know it is one of the few films that got everything that it needed, and it certainly has its fans. But it is not winning on the first ballot, and it is not a film that will do well in the preferential ballot system. It is a number 1 or a number 8 vote. I also think A Star is Born is out as well. It is clearly well-liked, but it just kept coming up short over and over again. For whatever reason it just did not click with voters the way many of us thought it would. Bohemian Rhapsody has defied its critics and its scandals, and Black Panther is a genuine pop cultural phenomenon. But without some of those key categories, I feel like neither has enough support to pull ahead. That being said, both are so popular, a win for either would not be completely shocking. The Favourite will have its detractors, which hurts it in this voting system, but the film's 10 nominations are nothing to ignore, and it definitely has its fans. BlacKkKlansman is beloved, but it has not really won much of anything, which hurts it. At least Moonlight had the Globe and WGA. Roma is everyone's pick, and I get why. BAFTA, DGA, and a slew of other awards shows its popularity. But it is a black and white foreign language film, it is esoteric and not an easy sit, it is from Netflix, which many voters have admitted makes them put it at the bottom, even if they respect the film. Green Book has survived all of its controversies, from Viggo, to Nick, to Peter, to the racism stuff, even Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has defended it against racism charges. The tapes were released that proved that Don Shirley's family's accusations were false. Also, you hear voters constantly putting in that number two and three slot, and you hear voters who don't give a shit if the Film Internet and Film Twitter worlds don't like it. It missed director, which is big, but then again, Roma missed editing. I think that the PGA shows us that Green Book does well on a preferential ballot. While it's not a perfect system, in a close year with so many potential contenders, all of whom lost to Green Book at the PGA, I am going to play it safe with the known. All of this knowing that this race is filled with nothing but unknowns.
Will Win - Alfonso Cuaron "Roma"
Could Win - Spike Lee "BlacKkKlansman"
Should Win - Spike Lee "BlacKkKlansman"
Commentary - Spike Lee deserves to be in this conversation, but after the Globe, Critics Choice, DGA, and BAFTA all went Cuaron's way, I think he has this one locked up. Best Picture may be a mess, but this one is pretty cut and dry.