Best Animated Feature
Will Win - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Could Win - Incredibles 2
Should Win - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Commentary - A late game-changer, Spider-Man has racked up almost all of the major awards, including the PGA, Annie, Globe, and a lot of the technical awards. I think that it is going to take the Oscar as well. In the back of my mind though, I am keeping a lookout for Incredibles 2. Pixar has dominated this category for years, and, despite some reports, Incredibles 2 is a heck of a sequel, and a fantastic film. The race may be closer than we think.
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win - RBG
Could Win - Free Solo or Minding the Gap
Should Win - Minding the Gap
Commentary - Minding the Gap is the indie favorite, and the most unique of the bunch. Free Solo is getting a huge boost from its BAFTA win. RBG is the political film of the bunch. The Oscar for Best Doc Feature has always split between the personal, feel-good contenders (think Amy, 20 Feet From Stardom, Searching for Sugarman, Man on Wire, Undefeated), or the political films (think O.J: Made in America, Icarus, Citizenfour, Inside Job). This year, Free Solo is the feel-good (okay its also horrifying to watch) and RBG is the political favorite. A lot of folks have moved towards Free Solo, which is not a bad move, but I think that like Icarus last year (over Faces Places), the current political climate, and all of the press surrounding Ruth Bader Ginsburg, will end up bringing RBG Oscar gold.
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win - Roma
Could Win - Cold War
Should Win - Roma or Cold War
Commentary - There are some folks who are picking Roma for Best Picture, therefore, they think voters will reward Cold War in this category, and then Roma in the top category. But I think that if voters are putting Roma as their Best Picture, then they are also putting it at the top of this category. And if something other than Roma wins the top prize, then this will act as a consolation prize for its team.