Wednesday, February 20, 2019

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Mahershala Ali "Green Book"
Could Win - Richard E. Grant "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Should Win - Richard E. Grant "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Commentary - Richard E. Grant has built up so much good will, and has been working the circuit so hard. It is paying off. Word is a lot of folks are voting for him and his endearing performance. Despite that goodwill though, he has not won a major award, and has been relegated to early critics awards. Instead, Mahershala Ali has had a clean sweep of the Globes, Critics Choice Awards, SAG, and BAFTA, and looks like he is well on his way to a second Academy Award. And if anyone is watching this season of True Detective, an Emmy award will probably be added to his mantel soon as well.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Regina King "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Could Win - Rachel Weisz "The Favourite", Amy Adams "Vice", Marina de Tavira "Roma"
Should Win - Regina King "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Commentary - Is this Syvelster Stallone all over again? Are we all diving into the Regina King pick and making the same mistake we did two years ago? Maybe, but I'm still picking Regina King, because I honestly don't know which of the other four could beat her. Rachel Weisz is technically this year's Mark Rylance, with her BAFTA in tow. But, I think that stateside, her co-star Emma Stone will pull enough voters away, something Rylance did not have to deal with in his surprise win. I also still wonder about Amy Adams. I know she hasn't won anything, but Vice is popular, and in a tight race, she could have a solid plurality vote. Finally, if Roma proves to be the night's big winner, watch out for Marina de Tavira. Once again, in a race that could literally go one of five ways, a small, but passionate plurality could put her over the top.

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