Album of the Year
Will Win - Kacey Musgraves "Golden Hour"
Could Win - Black Panther Soundtrack or Brandi Carlile "By the Way, I Forgive You", or
Should Win - Kacey Musgraves "Golden Hour"
Commentary - So Black Panther is such a cultural phenomenon, and the soundtrack could benefit from the massive Oscar campaign Disney successful used to garner it seven Oscar nominations. But it is up against two other rap albums that could steal votes. Brandi Carlile is not the best-seller of the bunch, but she has passionate fans, and did incredibly well with Grammy voters this year. She is definitely a wild-card. I think though that in a crowded field with a lot of contenders from similar genres that Kacey Musgraves is going to take the prize. She will have a solid country block voting for her and her album was one of the best reviewed of the year.
Record of the Year
Will Win - Childish Gambino "This is America"
Could Win - Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper "Shallow" or Brandi Carlile "The Joke"
Should Win - Childish Gambino "This is America"
Commentary - Shallow will probably win Song of the Year, which makes sense. But a lot of folks are also predicting Record of the Year. It's a smart prediction, as these awards often align. But I don't know how voters overlook This is America. Record of the Year should not only be a great record, but one that permeated society, through its popularity or message. This is America is the only one of the bunch that really hit that level. I also have this hunch about Brandi Carlile, so watch out.
Song of the Year
Will Win - Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson "Shallow"
Could Win - The Joke, This is America or All the Stars
Should Win - All the Stars
Commentary - In terms of song lyrics there is a reason that Shallow is leading the pack. It is a beautifully written song, although at the Grammys and the Oscars, my vote would be for All the Stars. Once again though, The Joke and This is America make for an interesting three-way race.
Artist of the Year
Will Win - H.E.R.
Could Win - Dua Lipa, Greta Van Fleet
Should Win - H.E.R.
Commentary - A Lot of folks are going elsewhere, but I don't know how you manage to be the only nominee to get an Album of the Year nomination and not win Best New Artist. Plus, she is easily the best of the bunch.