State of the Race: Final Nomination Predictions

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse

Other Contenders - War Horse, Bridesmaids, The Ides of March, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Drive, The Tree of Life, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Commentary - I had thought that there would be eight nominees, but with War Horse doing terribly in the guilds, and Bridesmaids being too unconventional, I think that they will be on the outside looking in at a total of seven nominees. I think that films like The Tree of Life and Tinker are still possibilities as they have passionate fan bases. Not knowing the exact amount of nominees is frustrating, but I feel confident that the seven here are all strong contenders. ***Readers note - after much deliberation I decided to add back War Horse.

Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius "The Artist"
Tate Taylor "The Help"
Martin Scorsese "Hugo"
Woody Allen "Midnight in Paris"
Alexander Payne "The Descendants"

Other Contenders - David Fincher "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo", Steven Spielberg "War Horse", Terrence Malick "The Tree of Life", Bennett Miller "Moneyball", George Clooney "The Ides of March", Nicholas Winding Refn "Drive", Tomas Alfredson "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Commentary - Four out of the five seem to be set in stone, as Payne, Hazanavicius, Scorsese, and Allen all seem like safe bets. It is that fifth slot that is giving me, and the rest of the blogosphere, a lot of trouble. Fincher got the DGA, but usually one is left off come Oscar morning. War Horse and The Tree of Life could be more popular with the combined Academy than the individual guilds. But my guess is that the popularity of the The Help surprises many and gets Taylor into the top five.

Best Actor
George Clooney "The Descendants"
Leonardo DiCaprio "J. Edgar"
Jean Dujardin "The Artist"
Gary Oldman "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Brad Pitt "Moneyball"

Other Contenders - Michael Fassbender "Shame", Michael Shannon "Take Shelter", Demian Bichir "A Better Life", Joseph Gordon-Levitt "50/50", Owen Wilson "Midnight in Paris", Ryan Gosling "Drive", Ryan Gosling "The Ides of March"
Commentary - The three frontrunners Pitt, Clooney, and Dujardin will be battling it out for the final prize. But it is the last two slots that are giving me some trouble. Dicaprio is constantly being left off lists, but he got the Globe and SAG nod, and is Leo. I think he gets in. It is the last slot that is trouble. Bichir got a surpise SAG nod, but I wonder about his support throughout the larger Academy. Michael Shannon could be a surpise come Oscar morning. Fassbender was in my predictions forever, but I still wonder about the NC-17 rating, and the support for shame, despite BAFTA support. So I am going with the other BAFTA nominee, Gary Oldman. I think that Tinker could play bigger with the Academy than we think, and what a better place to honor it than here.

Best Actress
Glenn Close "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis "The Help"
Meryl Streep "The Iron Lady"
Tilda Swinton "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Michelle Williams "My Week With Marilyn"

Other Contenders - Rooney Mara "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo", Charlize Theron "Young Adult", Kirsten Dunst "Melancholia", Elizabeth Olsen "Martha Marcy May Marlene", Felicity Jones "Like Crazy", Kristen Wiig "Bridesmaids"
Commentary - This one looks like it is pretty locked up, with Swinton, Davis, Streep, and Williams all getting the major nods across the board. Glenn Close is popular, and got the SAG nod. Berenice Bejo got the BAFTA nod, but I still stand by the fact that she will be supporting for the Oscars. The only upset I can see is Rooney Mara. If they like Dragon Tattoo as much as it seems like they do, she could sneak in.

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh "My Week With Marilyn"
Albert Brooks "Drive"
Jonah Hill "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer "Beginners"

Other Contenders - Armie Hammer "J. Edgar", Patton Oswalt "Young Adult", Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Ides of March", Viggo Mortensen "A Dangerous Method", Max von Sydow "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close", Andy Serkis "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
Commentary - This category has been a mess since the beginning, but I think we are starting to see some consensus. Plummer, Branagh, and Hill have all hit the right notes, and are in. Jim Broadbent and Philip Seymour Hoffman got the BAFTA nod, and while both of them are possibilities, I think they will miss the cut. Albert Brooks could be a big snub, as he missed both SAG and BAFTA, but I think with it being a weak category he still gets in. In the last slot, I am going with Nolte, who got the SAG. But he is tentative at best, and a surprise nominee could be coming our way.

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy "Bridesmaids"
Octavia Spencer "The Help"
Shailene Woodley "The Descendants"

Other Contenders - Janet McTeer "Albert Nobbs", Judi Dench "My Week With Marliyn", Carey Mulligan "Shame", Carey Mulligan "Drive"
Commentary - Six women, five spots. Bejo might have category confusion, but I think she, as well as the dynamic duo of The Help are in. Surprisingly, despite a Globe snub, the SAG and BAFTA love for Melissa McCarthy, along with the incredible guild run for the film, put her solidly in this race. The Globes went with both Woodley and McTeer, but the SAG opted for McCarthy and McTeer, and neither McTeer nor Woodley got in at the BAFTA's. So while McTeer might be the more practical choice considering her SAG love, I think the love for The Descendants will be enough to get its young star in.

Best Animated Feature
The Adventures of Tintin
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Other Contenders - Cars 2, Arthur Christmas, A Cat in Paris, Gnomeo & Juliet, Wrinkles, Alois Nebel
Commentary - While I still think that The Adventures of Tintin could be left off due to those who don't see it as animation, at this point it looks safe, as does frontrunner Rango. Puss in Boots also looks like it is a big contender. But the last two slots are tricky. Kung Fu Panda 2 looks like it could be a contender but other big hits like Arthur Christmas and Cars 2 are waiting in the wings. Every year, at least one foreign entry surprises and gets a nomination. If I had to guess, that spot this year will go to Chico & Rita. This is a huge limb to go out on, but sometimes its acceptable to take risks.

Best Documentary Feature
Bill Cunningham New York
Buck
Pina
Project Nim
We Were Here

Other Contenders - Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Senna, Semper Fi: Always Faithful, Hell and Back Again, Sing Your Song

Best Foreign Language Film
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
Pina (Germany)
A Separation (Iran)

Other Contenders - Bullhead, Omar Killed Me, Warriors of the Rainbow, Superclasico

Best Original Screenplay
Will Reiser "50/50"
Michel Hazanavicius "The Artist"
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo "Bridesmaids"
Woody Allen "Midnight in Paris"
Thomas McCarthy "Win Win"

Other Contenders -  Mike Mills "Beginners", Asghar Farhadi "A Separation", JC Chandor "Margin Call", Diablo Cody "Young Adult", Terrence Malick "The Tree of Life", Jeff Nichols "Take Shelter", Sean Durkin "Martha Marcy May Marlene"
Commentary - The Artist was not eligible for the WGA, but it will definitely get in here. But beyond it, I generally think that the WGA nominees will remain the same. The question is, which film gets replaced. If its between Win Win and Young Adult, I am going with Win Win getting in, although it is a close race. Beginners, A Separation, or The Tree of Life are also strong contenders, and this list could look drastically different come Oscar morning.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash "The Descendants"
Tate Taylor "The Help"
John Logan "Hugo"
Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin "Moneyball"
Bridget O'Connor and  Peter Straughn "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

Other Contenders - Steve Zaillian "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo", George Clooney and Grant Heslov "The Ides of March", Richard Curtis and Lee Hall "War Horse", Eric Roth "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close", Hossein Amini "Drive"
Commentary - There is a good chance that all five WGA nominees get into this race. But something tells me that Steve Zaillian will only get one nomination, and his bigger and stronger script is Moneyball. So in its place, I am going with the Brit's favorite Tinker. They clearly love the film, and with so many British members of the Academy, I feel like it is going to pop up somewhere in the top categories, and here is a place I think it could make some gains.

Best Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Help
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Best Costume Design
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week With Marilyn

Best Film Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse

Best Makeup
The Artist
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
The Iron Lady

Best Original Score
John Williams "The Adventures of Tintin"
Ludovic Bource "The Artist"
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
Howard Shore "Hugo"
John Williams "War Horse"

Best Original Song
Albert Nobbs - Lay Your Head Down
Captain America - Star Spangled Man
The Help - The Living Proof
The Muppets - Life's a Happy Song
The Muppets - Pictures in My Head

Best Sound Editing
The Adventures of Tintin
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Best Sound Mixing
Hugo
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
War Horse

Best Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen