Best Drama Series
Will Win - Homeland
Should Win - American Horror Story or Homeland
Could Win - AHS or Game of Thrones
Commentary - While I think an American Horror Story win would be cool (and completely possible), I think this is between Game of Thrones and Homeland. I have a hunch that, given the new, hot nature of Homeland, and the Globes' fascination with new shows, that Homeland will prevail.
Best Comedy Series
Will Win - Modern Family
Should Win - Parks & Recreation
Could Win - Enlightened, Glee
Commentary - Modern Family racked up serious nods, and Glee managed only the one as none of its previous nominees/winners made the cut. I think Modern Family takes the crown from Glee, unless the two new shows Enlightened or New Girl steal it away.
Best TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win - Downton Abbey
Should Win - Abbey
Could Win - Mildred Pierce
Commentary - Like at the Emmys, I think this comes down to Pierce vs. Abbey. And like round 1 I think round 2 will go to the British juggernaut.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win - Kelsey Grammer "Boss"
Should Win - Bryan Cranston "Breaking Bad"
Could Win - Buscemi or Lewis
Commentary - This one is tough, with Cranston coming back and Lewis leading the hottest new show of the season. But something tells me that Kelsey Grammer's critical smash Boss walks away with something, and why not something for its star?
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win - Claire Danes "Homeland"
Should Win - Danes or Margulies
Could Win - Margulies or Enos
Commentary - Margulies deserves contined recognition, but remember that they love new shows, and if they like Homeland as much as we think, then Danes (who already has two Globes) will take the prize.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Matt LeBlanc "Episodes"
Should Win - Galecki or three guys not nominated like Parsons, Carell, C.K.
Could Win - Baldwin
Commentary - Baldwin has won three Globes, and could easily continue his streak. Galecki is probably the most deserving nominee in this strange batch, but my guess is that, given the series nod for Episodes, that Matt Leblanc takes the prize.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Zooey Deschanel "New Girl"
Should Win - Deschanel or Poehler
Could Win - Poehler or Dern
Commentary - Poehler deserves recognition for Parks, but might have to play second fiddle to one of the new nominees. Dern is a spoiler, but my guess is that the infectious Zooey Deschanel takes the prize.
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win - Idris Elba "Luther"
Should Win - Elba or Nighy
Could Win - Nighy, West or Bonneville
Commentary - There will be no Kennedy's shocker this time around, although the a trio of Brits, West, Nighy or Bonneville all have a great possibility. I am personally going with the stunning Idris Elba in Luther. I think that it is wide open field however, and could go any which way.
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win/Should Win - Kate Winslet "Mildred Pierce"
Could Win - Lane or McGovern
Commentary - I will be shocked if anyone other than Winslet takes this award.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win/Should Win - Peter Dinklage "Game of Thrones"
Could Win - Any of them
Commentary - The supporting categories in the TV section are incredibly difficult to discern. I think it is between Dinklage and Pearce, but one of the Modern Family guys could win as well. I am going with my gut and going with Dinklage. If Homeland takes series, then the HFPA might want to reward it something, and Dinklage is an awesome way to do so.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Jessica Lange "American Horror Story"
Should Win - Smith or Lange
Could Win - Smith or Wood
Commentary - Smith won an Emmy last year for Downton and is a force to be reckoned with, as is Wood in Mildred Pierce. But I think Lange's seering role in AHS is fresh on the voter's minds and will be enough for her to take the gold.