The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions

Avatar: Fire & Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another 

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Wicked: For Good

Other Contenders - The Secret Agent, Weapons, Bugonia, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, F1: The Movie, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Is This Thing On?, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Blue Moon, The Smashing Machine, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, The Lost Bus, Hedda, Pillion, The Testament of Ann Lee, Rental Family, Anemone, Die My Love, After the Hunt, Father, Mother, Sister, Brother, Highest 2 Lowest, The Life of Chuck, The History of Sound

Commentary - A great race is brewing with a lot of great contenders. I feel confident about Hamnet and One Battle After Another, which look like it huge contenders going into the critics awards. In recent years international contenders have done well, and I think that, at the moment, that Sentimental Value and the Palme d'Or winner It Was Just an Accident both have a good shot of making the cut. We have seen first reactions (which are not always accurate) for Wicked: For Good, and if they hold up, it is definitely a huge contender following the success of its predecessor. Marty Supreme still needs to stand the test of the critics, but early word is that it is going to be a big contender this season. Sinners is still going strong, and I think critics will go to bat for it. That leaves three slots. I am going with two big technical contenders: Frankenstein and Avatar: Fire & Ash. Both will probably not do well in the big categories, but could build a solid campaign for the top ten with tons of technical support. Finally, I think Train Dreams could survive the long haul for a stealth Best Picture nod. Outside of those ten, The Secret Agent could be the film that brings three international contenders into the race for the first time, Bugonia could extend Yorgos Lanthimo's Oscar run, and House of Dynamite should be in the conversation for an incredible return for Kathryn Bigelow. Jay Kelly needs some early support to stay alive, as does F1 and Springsteen. Knives Out Returns, don't discount Bradley Cooper or Richard Linklater, and No Other Choice should be in the conversation. Don't discount The Smashing Machine, The Lost Bus, Hedda, The Testament of Ann Lee, and a plethora of other indie potentials.