Best Adapted Screenplay
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao "Hamnet"
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jahye Lee, and Don McKellar "No Other Choice"
Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar "Train Dreams"
Rian Johnson "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery"
Other Contenders - Craig Brewer "Song Sung Blue", Will Tracy "Bugonia", Guillermo Del Toro "Frankenstein", Holly Gent and Vincent Palmo Jr. "Nouvelle Vague", Scott Cooper "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere", Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox "Wicked: For Good", James Cameron, Josh Friedman, Rick Jaffa, Shane Salerno, Amanda Silver "Avatar: Fire & Ash", Lynne Ramsey and Enda Walsh "Die My Love", Bill Condon "Kiss of the Spider Woman", Jack El-Hai and James Vanderbilt "Nuremberg", Mike Flanagan "The Life of Chuck"
Commentary - Hamnet and One Battle After Another have emerged as we head into October as the earliest front runners for the Oscars, across multiple categories. Both, at the moment, feel like locks in this race, and probably the Oscar might end up being between them. The other choices present interesting opportunities for films. No Other Choice, I think, could still emerge as a bigger contender as more people see it, and writers have always had a soft spot for foreign language films. Rian Johnson has yet to miss out on a screenplay not for his Knives Out series, and this one continues to get rave reviews. Finally, Train Dreams, from one of the nominees for Sing Sing last year, is the type of sleeper project to watch out for moving forward. Song Sung Blue is a wild card, Bugonia is weird but liked, Frankenstein is the closest to the original in terms of adaptation, and big projects like Avatar and Wicked cannot be discounted. I think Springsteen is precarious with its mixed reception, Die My Love is probably not a huge contender across the board, and The Life of Chuck, Nuremberg, and Kiss of the Spider Woman have their supporters, but also their detractors.
Best Original Screenplay
Noah Oppenheim "A House of Dynamite"
Jafar Panahi "It Was Just an Accident"
Josh Safdie "Marty Supreme"
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt "Sentimental Value"
Ryan Coogler "Sinners"
Other Contenders - Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper "Is This Thing On?", Zach Cregger "Weapons", Kleber Mendonça Filho "The Secret Agent", Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer "Jay Kelly", Hikari and Stephen Blahut "Rental Family", Robert Kaplow "Blue Moon", Benny Safdie "The Smashing Machine", Mary Bronstein "If I Had Legs, I Would Kick You",
Commentary - This race has less contenders, but I feel like more chance of a shakeup. Sentimental Value is a hit after Cannes, and has not slowed down during the Fall fests. Sinners is still on people's minds, and is set to be a huge Oscar contender. It Was Just an Accident won the Palme d'Or and looks like it is still making a splash. Marty Supreme is a still a big question mark, but the buzz is undeniable. Finally, Katheryn Bigelow is back on the scene with A House of Dynamite, whose script is being celebrated for its tension building. I think I am on the cusp of moving in Is This Thing On? especially considering Bradley Cooper's positive history with the Oscars. Weapons could join Sinners as a genre contender, The Secret Agent has fabulous reviews, and while they got mixed reactions, Jay Kelly and Rental Family definitely still have their fervent supporters. Also watch out for Blue Moon, The Smashing Machine (not a screenplay type of movie), and If I Had Legs, I Would Kick You.
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