Andrew Garfield "Artificial"
Paul Giamatti "The Debut"
Guitarricadelafuente "La Bola Negra"
John Leguizamo "The Odyssey"
Sam Rockwell "Wild Horse Nine"
Other Contenders - Robert Pattinson "The Odyssey", Edward Norton "The Invite", Steve Buscemi "Wild Horse Nine", John Goodman "Digger", Jeremy Strong "The Social Reckoning", Colman Domingo "Michael", Guy Pearce "Ink", James Ortiz "Project Hail Mary", Paul Jesson "Tender Loving Care", Sklyer Gisondo "Primetime", Reggie Absolom "Club Kid", Diego Calva "Club Kid", Antonio Banderas "Tony", Ray Nicholson "The Mosquito Bowl", Channing Tatum "Josephine", Tom Holland "The Odyssey", Adam Driver "Paper Tiger", Daniel Kaluuya "Misty Green", Yahya Abdul-Mateen II "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth", Willem Dafoe "Werwulf", Bill Burr "The Social Reckoning", Jeremy Allen White "The Social Reckoning", Peter Mullan "I Swear", Mark Ruffalo "Being Heumann", Riz Ahmed "Digger", Stanley Tucci "The Devil Wears Prada 2", Stephan James "I Play Rocky", Giancarlo Esposito "The Only Living Pickpocket in New York"
Commentary - A weirdly weak race, that is four top heavy, and then a lot of possibilities beyond that lineup. Paul Giamatti is so damn overdue for an Oscar, but I don't want to put too much hope out there that this is his time. That being said, he is in strong position for another nomination for The Debut. The Odyssey has several possibilities, but it looks like John Leguizamo, a popular veteran actor, might finally get his first Oscar nomination. Artificial premiered this week to pretty good reviews, but almost universal praise for Andrew Garfield. I do hope that Guitarricadelafuente gets into some big races, if only to hear people have to pronounce his name. In all seriousness, he is getting a tone of buzz for La Bola Negra, which is set to be huge contender across the board. Finally, Sam Rockwell pairing back up with Martin McDonagh could lead to more Oscar gold. Beyond those five, Edward Norton's early success with The Invite could translate. Robert Pattinson could join Leguizamo, Steve Buscemi could join Sam Rockwell, and despite mixed reviews don't discount previous nominees John Goodman, Jeremy Strong, and Colman Domingo. Breakouts Paul Jesson, James Ortiz, Skyler Gisondo, Reggie Absolomand Ray Nicholson could break through. Previous nominees and winners like Guy Pearce, Antonio Banderas, Adam Driver, Daniel Kaluuya, Willem Dafoe, Mark Ruffalo, Riz Ahmed, and Stanley Tucci could return. Finally, don't discount some overdue veterans like Channing Tatum, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Bill Burr, Jeremy Allen White, Peter Mullan, Stephan James, and Giancarlo Esposito could crash the party.
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