Emily Blunt "The Smashing Machine"
Elle Fanning "Sentimental Value"
Ariana Grande "Wicked: For Good"
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas "Sentimental Value"
Teyana Taylor "One Battle After Another"
Other Contenders - Gwyneth Paltrow "Marty Supreme", Amy Madigan "Weapons", Laura Dern "Jay Kelly", Glenn Close "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery", Regina Hall "One Battle After Another", Emily Watson "Hamnet", Odessa A'zion "Marty Supreme", Fran Drescher "Marty Supreme", Nina Hoss "Hedda", Wunmi Mosaku "Sinners", Hailee Steinfeld "Sinners", Rebecca Ferguson "A House of Dynamite", Jennifer Lopez "The Kiss of the Spider Woman", Kirsten Dunst "Roofman", Mariam Afshari "It Was Just an Accident", Felicity Jones "Train Dreams", Ayo Edebiri "After the Hunt", America Ferrera "The Lost Bus", Zoey Deutch "Nouvelle Vague", Margaret Qualley "Blue Moon"
Commentary - This race has blown wide open with a ton of interest narratives that could play out over the next couple of months. I still feel good, at the moment, with Ariana Grande. Unless the completely divebomb in part two, we know voters love her character and his film franchise. I also still feel good about Emily Blunt, who got great reviews for The Smashing Machine. After her Oppenheimer nomination, I feel like she is finally in the Academy's good graces. We often see follow up nominations come soon after they finally break that seal. Sentimental Value continues to impress across the film festival world, and Elle Fanning's performance is getting a ton of buzz (but she could either be joined, or knocked out by her co-star Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas). Finally, after the explosive reviews and solid box office start, One Battle After Another could be the one to beat in this Oscar race. Right now I have both of the jaw-dropping turns by Teyana Taylor and Chase Infinity in the top five. That might be a pipe-dream, but I think voters are going to eat this project up. Beyond those five, I have the previously mentioned Lilleas and Gwyneth Paltrow. Honestly, until we see Marty Supreme, it is just speculation that she is a big contender, and she has co-stars like Odessa A'zion and Fran Drescher that could end up being the bigger play in this category. Amy Madigan is hoping for a solid run after the success of Weapons and the campaign that is being put behind it. After the success of The Substance last year, both it and Sinners (including their contenders here Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld), are hoping that their genre trappings are no longer a hinderance to Oscar success. Beyond that you have some previous winners and nominees like Laura Dern, Glenn Close, Emily Watson, Kirsten Dunst, Felicity Jones, and America Ferrera hopping to return to the race. Throw in the veterans and newcomers looking for their first shot like Regina Hall, Nina Hoss, Rebecca Ferguson, Jennifer Lopez, Marian Afshari, Zoey Deutch, Ayo Edibiri, and Margaret Qualley, and you have a great race to watch.
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