The Oscar Narrative: Final Winner Predictions - Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress

Best Actor

Will Win - Adrien Brody "The Brutalist"

Could Win - Timothee Chalamet "A Complete Unknown"

Should Win - Ralph Fiennes "Conclave" or Colman Domingo "Sing Sing"

Commentary - Timothee Chalamet's SAG win did but a crack in the Adrien Brody wall heading right to the finish line. Is it a sign that Brody's campaign has faltered? Or is it just a bump in the road. I still think that Brody will finish strong and win, but I will not be jaw-dropped if a surprise happens. 

Best Actress

Will Win - Mikey Madison "Anora"

Could Win - Demi Moore "The Substance" or Fernanda Torres "I'm Still Here"

Should Win - Madison, Moore, Torres, or Erivo

Commentary - What a race this has become at the finish line. Demi Moore is the most obvious choice, with the large majority of major precursors, especially SAG. Mikey Madison though, won the BAFTA, which is the group that sees a large group across different branches voting on all of the awards. Then there is the Fernanda Torres factor. She won at the Globes, and since then her film and her performance have been on an upward trajectory. There is definitely a lot of buzz for her performance. This is the first time that all three have faced off against each other, and all three are in Best Picture nominees. My heart tells me Demi, who has worked for so long to get to this moment. My head tells me that the surge of Torres support is enough to surprise. My gut tells me that Madison's BAFTA win was no fluke, and that she wins in a tight, completely crazy race. 

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win - Kieran Culkin "A Real Pain" 

Could Win - Jeremy Strong "The Apprentice"

Should Win - Yura Borisov "Anora" or Edward Norton "A Complete Unknown"

Commentary - Kieran has swept everything, and none of the other contenders have managed to breakthrough. I think he wins in a walk.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win - Zoe Saldana "Emilia Perez"

Could Win - Isabella Rossellini "Conclave"

Should Win - Ariana Grande "Wicked"

Commentary - The big question of the night is: how bad is the Emilia Perez controversy? Did it hurt the film so much that Saldana gets snubbed at the finished line? I don't think so. I also think that it can still win several Oscars despite everything. She has swept every major precursor, and I think there is enough goodwill for her as an actress and a performance to make her finish strong and win.