Will Win - Anora
Should Win - Anora or Wicked
Could Win - Conclave
Commentary - The battle for Best Picture has not been this hot in awhile, and it is closer probably than it has been since Gravity and 12 Years a Slave over a decade ago. Both Anora and Conclave are early favorites that lied in waiting with Wicked, The Brutalist, and even A Complete Unknown came and went. Then at the finish line with the guild awards and BAFTA, these two films reemerged as the main contenders. It has thrown this entire season for a loop. Anora has PGA, DGA, WGA, and Critics Choice. Conclave has SAG, BAFTA, and would have won WGA had it been eligible. So the preferential ballot favors those that are acting and writing over more directorial films. Your 1917 versus Parasite, CODA versus The Power of the Dog, Green Book versus Roma. So in that vein, it feels like Conclave is the bigger contender. But, Anora is also a film that also has the acting and writing factor. It also has won on two preferential ballots and has shown some international support. But Conclave is the film that will probably most inspire the older voters. Over the years, I have gotten a lot better about this category, after my initial mistakes not being able to navigate the preferential ballot. But this year, I am completely stumped. My head says Conclave, my heart says Anora. I am sticking with Anora. I think that it is the best film of the bunch, I think that it has a lot of great mix of voters that love it, and I think it will cross the finish line with a nice Oscar statuette.
Best Director
Will Win - Sean Baker "Anora"
Could Win - Brady Corbet "The Brutalist"
Should Win - Sean Baker "Anora" or James Mangold "A Complete Unknown"
Commentary - Another fierce battle. Brady Corbet has BAFTA and Sean Baker has DGA. They both have great track records. Part of me feels a split coming, but we all know it is a safer bet to pick both if they are both nominated. Corbet feels like the more classical winner, but Baker has finished strong.
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