Will Win - The Brutalist
Could Win - Nosferatu, Dune: Part II, or Maria
Should Win - The Brutalist
Commentary - The ASC threw the curveball of Maria. I would love to see something wild like that happen, but I don't know if the larger Academy will respond the same way. BAFTA, and a lot of the other precursors, settled on The Brutalist, and I think it will reign here. I would also watch for Dune: Part II. The first film won here, and we have seen some overlap with Visual Effects, Cinematography, and Production Design. This year, it may split three ways, but don't be shocked if it doesn't.
Best Costume Design
Will Win - Wicked
Could Win - Conclave
Should Win - Wicked
Commentary - These costumes have swept pretty much every award leading up to the Oscars. They are the biggest, the boldest, and the best. I think the streak continues.
Best Film Editing
Will Win - Conclave
Could Win - Anora or The Brutalist
Should Win - Conclave's BAFTA win was telling, and honestly, without the ACE Eddies weighing in until after the Oscars, we don't have the other major precursor (and many of the precursors went with Challengers, which was unceremoniously snubbed here). I think Anora is a still a possibility, especially if it is strong enough to win Best Picture, and despite the fact that it would be ridiculous, don't count out The Brutalist.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win - The Substance
Could Win - Wicked or A Different Man
Should Win - The Substance
Commentary - Makeup winners tend to be the most obvious makeup, the most stylized, the most over the top. This helps The Substance a lot. It did well at the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild, won the BAFTA, and is most definitely the most makeup.
Best Production Design
Will Win - Wicked
Could Win - Conclave or Dune: Part II
Should Win - Wicked
Commentary - This is another one where Wicked has dominated the precursors for this category, including ADG, Set Decorators Society, and BAFTA. But Conclave has also done well at some of these guilds, and if it is a BP contender, could pull another surprise along the way. Also, with the more common connection between Visual Effects and Production Design, Dune Part II could surprise (or does Wicked surprise in Visual Effects? Something to ponder).
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