The Oscar Narrative: Final Winner Predictions - Best Original Score, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects, and Shorts

Best Original Score

Will Win - The Brutalist

Could Win - Conclave

Should Win - The Brutalist (Actually it should be Challengers)

Commentary - The Brutalist has the most expansive score of the bunch, and it did win the BAFTA, the only major precursor to cross over to the Academy voting block. But watch out for Conclave, whose score is also memorable. Oh and shoutout to Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, who should be winning for Challengers. 

Best Original Song

Will Win - Emilia Perez - El Mal

Could Win - Elton John: Never Too Late - Never Too Late or The Six Triple Eight - The Journey

Should Win - The Six Triple Eight - The Journey or Sing Sing - Like a Bird

Commentary - Is Emilia Perez still in the mix? I believe it still walks away with a few Oscars, despite the controversy, and El Mal has been in the lead for awhile. But, if the controversy has hit home, is this the year that Diane Warren finally wins? Maybe not, and it could be Elton John and Brandi Carlile. But I would love to see it finally happen, that or the song from Sing Sing, which was a nice surprise nominee.

Best Sound

Will Win - Dune Part II

Could Win - A Complete Unknown or Wicked

Should Win - Dune Part II or Wicked

Commentary - An interesting three-way race is brewing here. A lot of anonymous voters (yes we take with a grain of salt) are saying A Complete Unknown, which did win the CAS Award. But BAFTA has been a bigger indicator in this category, and often the most sound wins, which doesn't help the more subtle A Complete Unknown (although last years The Zone of Interest proved that theory is not always right). I also think this keeps Wicked in the mix, as voters have often rewarded musicals in this category, and the sound work is great. In a tight race, I am sticking with Dune's immersive sound quality. 

Best Visual Effects

Will Win - Dune: Part II

Could Win - Wicked or Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Should Win - Dune Part II

Commentary - The visual spectacle that is Dune should join its predecessor as a winner here, and voters do particularly like Best Picture nominees in this category when they can. Also watch out for Wicked and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, which did well at the VES Awards.

Best Animated Short

Wander to Wonder

Best Documentary Short

I Am Ready, Warden

Best Live Action Short

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent