The Oscar Narrative: Final Winner Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win - Peter Straughn "Conclave"

Could Win - RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes "Nickel Boys"

Should Win - Conclave or Nickel Boys

Commentary - Conclave has dominated these precursors except for the WGA where it was not eligible. There, the writers went with Nickel Boys, which is in a solid place to upset. If Conclave though is a big as we think it is, and a potential BP winner, I think it collects this prize along the way. 

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win - Sean Baker "Anora"

Could Win - Jesse Eisenberg "A Real Pain" or Coralie Fargeat "The Substance"

Should Win - Sean Baker "Anora"

Commentary - Jesse Eisenberg has a real upper hand here with a surprise win at BAFTA. Sean Baker won at WGA. Coralie Fargeat won at the Critics Choice. My gut tells me not to ignore the BAFTA win, but I think if Anora is going to win Best Picture, it will squeak out a close one here. 

Best Animated Feature

Will Win - The Wild Robot

Could Win - Flow

Should Win - The Wild Robot

Commentary - Flow could surprise here, as it has stayed strong throughout the season, and is well-liked by voters. But The Wild Robot has done incredibly well with a lot of guilds, and when BAFTA was given the chance to vote, they chose Wallace & Gromit instead of Flow. Also, while the Animation Branch has always been daring with its nominations, annually rewarding foreign and indie contenders, the only one of those contenders two cross the finish line were the two Miyazaki films. I think the more mainstream The Wild Robot will take the prize.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win - Porcelain War

Could Win - No Other Land

Should Win - Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Commentary - No Other Land has been the critical favorite, but still lacks distribution. It could definitely win here, and make a big statement on the Israel/Gaza conflict. But after the DGA win, and the Ukraine subject matter, which really came to a head during voting, I think that Porcelain War is going to surprise with a win.

Best International Feature

Will Win - I'm Still Here (Brazil)

Could Win - Emilia Perez (France)

Should Win - I'm Still Here

Commentary - What a shift this category has had in the last few weeks. This was locked and loaded for Emilia Perez, and I'm going to be honest: don't be surprised if it wins this in a walk. But the emergence of I'm Still Here has been fascinating to watch, at the same time that Emilia Perez's many controversies came to a head. I know there are plenty of voters that don't care about the controversies and love the movie. I also know that many of the voters are finally catching up with I'm Still Here after Torres won the Globe, and are really loving it. It will be a close race, but I expect the upset.