The Oscar Narrative: First 2023 Nomination Predictions - Best Actor

First 2023 Nomination Predictions

Christian Bale "Amsterdam"

Austin Butler "Elvis"

Colin Firth "Empire of Light"

Brendan Fraser "The Whale"

Hugh Jackman "The Son"

Other Contenders - Timothee Chalamet "Bones and All", Brad Pitt "Babylon", Adam Driver "White Noise", Colin Farrell "The Banshees of Inisherin", Christian Bale "The Pale Blue Eye", Song Kang-Ho "Broker", Bill Nighy "Living", Daniel Gimenez Cacho "Bardo", Daniel Kaluuya "Nope", Kelvin Harrison Jr. "Chevalier", Colman Domingo "Rustin", Harris Dickinson "Triangle of Sadness", Gabriel LaBelle "The Fablemans", Joaquin Phoenix "Disappointment Blvd.", Harry Styles "My Policeman", Jalil Hall "Till", Michael Fassbender "The Killer", Ethan Hawke "Raymond and Ray", Ewan McGregor "Raymond and Ray", George Clooney "Ticket to Paradise", Nicholas Hoult "The Menu", Jamie Foxx "The Burial", Daniel Craig "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery", Paul Mescal "Aftersun"

Commentary - Austin Butler has landed on the scene for Elvis. I caution though that he will need lots of precursors. Hugh Jackman is pairing up with Florian Zeller for his follow up to The Father, which won Anthony Hopkins the Best Actor Oscar. There is a lot of buzz for Brendan Fraser for The Whale, and may finally be the role that gets him awards attention. Colin Firth pairing up with Sam Mendes opposite Olivia Colman feels like an Oscar comeback. Finally, I have put Christian Bale in for David O. Russell's latest Amsterdam. They have quite a history at the Oscars together. Beyond those five though, this race has a lot of potential. Timothee Chalamet is returning with Luca Guadagnino, Brad Pitt may go supporting for Damien Chazelle's latest, and Bill Nighy is getting a lot of buzz. There are plenty of previous nominees and winners in the race including Daniel Kaluuya, Adam Driver, Ethan Hawke, George Clooney, Jamie Foxx, Joaquin Phoenix, and Michael Fassbender. There are overdue veterans like Colin Farrell, Daniel Craig, and Ewan McGregor, mixed in with newcomers and breakouts like Song Kang-Ho, Gabriel LaBelle, Colman Domingo, Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Harry Styles, Nicholas Hoult, Kelvin Harrison, Paul Mescal, and Harris Dickinson.