2022 Emmy Predictions: Best Variety Talk and Sketch Series and Best Live and Pre-Recorded Variety Special

Best Variety Talk Series

Will Win - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver 

Could Win - Late Show with Stephen Colbert or The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

Should Win - The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

Commentary - Until something else wins, Last Week Tonight is my perennial pick.

Best Variety Sketch Series

Will Win - Saturday Night Live

Could Win - A Black Lady Sketch Show

Should Win - A Black Lady Sketch Show

Commentary - If A Black Lady Sketch Show is going to win, this it its year. Saturday Night Live's season was eh at best, it got so few acting nods, after dominating in recent years, and frankly, currently, it is the better show of the two. But SNL is the juggernaut, and I am predicting another win under its belt.

Best Variety Special (Live)

Will Win - Live in Front of a Studio Audience: The Facts of Life and Diff'rent Strokes

Could Win - The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and 50 Cent, or The Tony Awards Present: Broadway's Back!

Should Win - The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and 50 Cent

Commentary - One of the pinnacle pop culture moments of the year was the Halftime Super Bowl show. It was an amazing 30 minutes of television, and the reviews were stunning. But it would have to break a lot of precedent to win. Instead, I think voters will go 3/3 on the Live in Front of a Studio Audience productions. They are nostalgic, stacked with stars, and big television events. 

Best Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

Will Win - Norm MacDonald: Nothing Special 

Could Win - One Last Time: An Evening with Tony Bennet and Lady Gaga and Adele: One Night Only

Should Win - One Last Time: An Evening with Tony Bennet and Lady Gaga 

Commentary - There is Adele and then a lot of nostalgia, which could help Adele. One Last Time has made headlines with its addition of Lady Gaga and Tony Bennett as producers, which could help. However, it missed writing and directing, and I think that helps the other nostalgic nominee, the last work of the late-great Norm MacDonald, which got both categories. I think it wins in a tight race.