The Oscar Narrative: First 2023 Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

First 2023 Nomination Predictions

Amsterdam

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Empire of Light

The Fablemans

The Son

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Other Contenders - Women Talking, White Noise, Everything Everywhere All at Once, She Said, TAR, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Triangle of Sadness, The Woman King, Nope, Living, Armageddon Time, Till, Shirley, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Thirteen Lives, Bones and All, Blonde, The Menu, I Wanna Dance with Somebody, The Good Nurse, The Pale Blue Eye, Golda

Commentary - The question is, how many big films get in? History suggests that one or two tops will make the cut, depending on how the independent landscape shapes up post festivals. Last year it was Dune. In 2019 (I am skipping 2020 for obvious reasons) 1917, Joker, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood were big hits. In 2018, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star is Born were massive successes. Right now I am predicting three. Top Gun continues to break records, the first trailer for Wakanda Forever promises a fantastic follow-up, and Avatar: The Way of Water may yet again change the game for modern cinema. Several recent favorites return with David O. Russell and Amsterdam, Florian Zeller and The Son, Damien Chazelle and Babylon, Steve Spielberg and The Fablemans, Alejandro G. Inarritu with Bardo, Sam Mendes with Empire of Light, and Darren Aronofsky and The Whale. Leaning on well-known favorites is usually your best bet early in the game. Sarah Polley has Women Talking, Noah Baumbach has White Noise, Martin McDonagh has The Banshees of Inisherin, Baz Luhrmann has Elvis, Ron Howard has Thirteen Lives, Luca Guadagnino has Bones and All, and Jordan Peele has Nope. Throw in other potentials like She Said, TAR, Triangle of Sadness, Glass Onion, The Pale Blue Eye, Golda, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Blonde, The Menu, Living, The Woman King, Till, Shirley, Armaggedon Time, and The Good Nurse, and we have a great race on our hands.