Friday, December 28, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Predictions - Best Actress

Pre-Guild Predictions
Emily Blunt "Mary Poppins Returns"
Glenn Close "The Wife"
Olivia Colman "The Favourite"
Lady Gaga "A Star is Born"
Melissa McCarthy "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

Other Contenders - Yalitza Aparicio "Roma", Rosamund Pike "A Private War", Toni Collette "Hereditary", Nicole Kidman "Destroyer", Elsie Fisher "Eighth Grade", Joanna Kulig "Cold War", Constance Wu "Crazy Rich Asians", Charlize Theron "Tully", Viola Davis "Widows", Julia Roberts "Ben is Back", Regina Hall "Support the Girls", Felicity Jones "On the Basis of Sex"

Commentary - This race still has so many potential contenders. Just from SAG, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice, there are twelve names, all of which are still in the conversation. That still leaves out Julia Roberts, Viola Davis, Regina Hall, and Joanna Kulig, all of whom are still being talked about as we enter the next phase of Oscar voting. Right now I am sticking with the SAG five. These five got all three (SAG, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice). Everyone else got one, or two, but not all three. Obviously a lot can change in the race, and BAFTA always throws in a contender or two, but consensus also starts to develop, and these five feel like the ones rising to the top. A lot of folks are hanging their hats on Yalitza Aparicio, hoping that the love for Roma will spill over here. I think we would have seen her show up at the Globes had that love translated. I don't see her getting in at BAFTA, which means she will only have regional critics groups and the Critics Choice heading into Oscar nominations. Not that its impossible, but I think she needed to have had a better standing at this point, especially in a year with so many big names on the ballot. Beyond those six, Pike, Collette, Kidman, and Fisher are all hoping voters will take notice, but I think that after a mess of race, it is finally starting to form into a much more coherent race.

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