Mahershala Ali "Green Book"
Timothee Chalamet "Beautiful Boy"
Adam Driver "BlacKkKlansman"
Sam Elliott "A Star is Born"
Richard E. Grant "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Other Contenders - Michael B. Jordan "Black Panther", Sam Rockwell "Vice", Brian Tyree Henry "If Beale Street Could Talk", Daniel Kaluuya "Widows", Steven Yeun "Burning", Steve Carell "Vice", Josh Hamilton "Eighth Grade"
Commentary - This race has narrowed to seven quickly, with the rest of the names faint possibilities. I think the SAG five will hold. Sam Rockwell got the Globe nod, but I think his role is too small, and he will be replaced by Sam Elliott in a film that is destined to go further. The real spoiler is Michael B. Jordan. Black Panther is truly a contender, and I think Jordan could knock Chalamet, whose film has no other legit chances for a nomination, for that final slot. Ali, Grant, and Driver feel like locks, with Grant leading the way, and Elliott feels like the sentimental pick, and could ride a waive of nostalgia to an Oscar.