Monday, December 31, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Actor

Pre-Guild Predictions
Christian Bale "Vice"
Bradley Cooper "A Star is Born"
Rami Malek "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Viggo Mortensen "Green Book"
John David Washington "BlacKkKlansman"

Other Contenders - Ethan Hawke "First Reformed", Ryan Gosling "First Reformed", Willem Dafoe "At Eternity's Gate", Lucas Hedges "Boy Erased"

Commentary - The SAG, Globes, and Critics Choice have narrowed down this race down to ten. I don't see Lucas Hedges popping up, but the Globes kept his chances alive, and he does have two big projects for voters to see his work. Willem Dafoe and Ryan Gosling are popular past nominees, and if BAFTA gives them a boost, they could sneak back in. The critics have gone to bat for Ethan Hawke, but no SAG and no Globe means that the broader industry is not on the same page. Once again, a BAFTA nod could help. I think the last slot could go to Globe/SAG nominee John David Washington. The other four are locked, and ready to battle it out for Oscar.

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