Monday, February 22, 2016

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, and Best Film Editing

Best Cinematography
Will Win - Emmanuel Lubezki "The Revenant"
Could Win - John Seale "Mad Max: Fury Road" or Roger Deakins "Sicario"
Should Win - John Seale "Mad Max: Fury Road" or Roger Deakins "Sicario"
Commentary - Lubezki is genius, John Seale is a legend. But both have already won. It is about damn time that Academy voters reward Roger Deakins. But alas, this is Lubezki's to lose. The Revenant is the Best Picture front runner, the cinematography is brilliant, and he has won every major precursor.

Best Costume Design
Will Win - Jenny Beavan "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Could Win - Sandy Powell "Cinderella" or Sandy Powell "Carol"
Should Win - Sandy Powell "Carol"
Commentary - Carol deserves to win here, if not for the great costume work, for the fact that it deserves at least one moment on that stage. Cinderella, another Sandy Powell creation, has the flash that usually does well here. But I have a hunch that Mad Max is going to win here. You have to go back to 2007 to find a BAFTA winner that did not repeat here. If Mad Max eclipses Cinderella tomorrow night at the CDG Awards, then momentum is definitely in its favor.

Best Film Editing
Will Win - Margaret Sixel "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Could Win - Hank Corwin "The Big Short" or Stephen Mirrione "The Revenant"
Should Win - Margaret Sixel "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Commentary - If The Big Short wins here early on, it could signal its chances of Best Picture are stronger. But I think this is Mad Max's to lose. The Revenant is in play simply if a sweep occurs, but the Eddie split between Mad Max and The Big Short, and Mad Max won the BAFTA. This is a closer race than most people assume, and it is a comedy versus a fantasy film, neither of which are Academy favorites. I pick Mad Max in a close one.

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