Will Win - The Revenant
Could Win - Spotlight, The Big Short, or Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win - Mad Max: Fury Road
Commentary - I have no idea which film is winning Best Picture. The Big Short is the only film statistically that can win this award. Period. But stats seem to be failing us this year. Spotlight feels like the Best Picture winner, its the film that people like the most. Like matters more than love in a preferential ballot. My brain says Spotlight or The Big Short. My heart says The Revenant. It would have to defy a lot of odds. The first film since Braveheart without a SAG Ensemble nod. The first film since Titanic to win without a screenplay nomination. The first time EVER a director wins back to back Best Picture Oscars. The odds are not in The Revenant's favor. And yet here we are. It has the momentum, it is the "brilliant film making" tag attached to it (although if they are going to go that way, why the hell are they not voting for Mad Max). So I am going with my gut, which says The Revenant. But this is still a three-way race, and it will be a nail-biter till the end.
Will Win - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu "The Revenant"
Could Win - George Miller "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Should Win - George Miller "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Commentary - How the hell is George Miller not winning this Oscar? They are going to go with a "visionary" director, and instead of picking the veteran who reinvented his own franchise and improved it from cult classic to brilliant film making, they pick the same guy they picked last year? I think Inarritu is brilliant, and I am so happy to see him getting his due. And both he and Miller are Oscar winners, so I really should just get over it. But I can't! Inarritu won the BAFTA, the DGA, and the Globe. He is winning a second Oscar. I still hold out hope that voters realize that they should think differently. Of course, they could have nominated Ridley Scott, and then picked him so that all three were Oscar winners. But I digress. Inarritu for the win.