Sunday, January 10, 2016

The Oscar Narrative: Final Golden Globe Predictions

Best Picture - Drama
Will Win - Spotlight
Could Win - Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, or Carol
Should Win - Mad Max: Fury Road
Commentary - Spotlight might be stumbling a bit towards the finish line, but apparently it is beloved by HFPA members. Mad Max, The Revenant and Carol are all spoilers given their love across the board, but this is spotlights to lose.

Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - The Big Short
Could Win - The Martian
Should Win - Trainwreck or Spy
Commentary - The Martian is clearly a favorite among voters, and I think it has a real shot here. The only problem is that a lot of folks were not happy with its placement here in Comedy. I would love to see something like Trainwreck or Spy, a really laugh-out-loud comedy take this for once. But I think that the film that benefits from The Martian's issues here is The Big Short which is coming on strong. It is funny, its cast is packed full of huge stars, and if they did it, they could be the first group to reward it on its march to Best Picture.

Best Actor - Drama
Will Win - Leonardo DiCaprio "The Revenant"
Could Win - Bryan Cranston "Trumbo" and Will Smith "Concussion"
Should Win - DiCaprio or Michael Fassbender "Steve Jobs"
Commentary - Cranston is a favorite, and Will Smith is a huge star, but if anyone other than Leo wins this, I would be shocked.

Best Actress - Drama
Will Win - Brie Larson "Room"
Could Win - Saoirse Ronan "Brooklyn"
Should Win - Brie Larson "Room"
Commentary - With Vikander and Mara here, this race is interesting, but I think it is between Larson and Ronan. Room got the Best Picture nomination, which Brooklyn did not showing more support for the film overall. In a tough race, I think its Larson's to lose.

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Matt Damon "The Martian"
Could Win - The Big Short guys, or Al Pacino "Danny Collins"
Should Win - Matt Damon "The Martian"
Commentary - The HFPA may not like The Martian in comedy, but I think that Matt Damon will be irresistible to voters. He is funny in the film, carries it on his back, and I think The Big Short guys will cancel each other out (although if one of this wins, it proves this film is gaining a lot of momentum). The dark horse here is Al Pacino, a legendary star in a movie that many have said was well-liked among voters.

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Amy Schumer "Trainwreck"
Could Win - Jennifer Lawrence "Joy" or Maggie Smith "The Lady in the Van"
Should Win - Amy Schumer "Trainwreck" or Melissa McCarthy "Spy"
Commentary - Maggie Smith is apparently coming, and as you know she doesn't show up very often (and just got a BAFTA nod for her role), and Jennifer Lawrence is the biggest movie star on the planet right now. But Joy is not beloved, and this has been the year of Amy Schumer. I think that the Globes will want to join the fun.

Best Director
Will Win - Ridley Scott "The Martian"
Could Win - Tom McCarthy "Spotlight" or George Miller "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Should Win - George Miller "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Commentary - They will either rubber stamp Spotlight here, or follow the direction a lot of critics groups have been taking and split picture and director with George Miller. But I think that despite its placement issues, that voters really did like The Martian, and seeing Ridley Scott finally win a Globe will be a huge moment for them.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Sylvester Stallone "Creed"
Could Win - Mark Rylance "Bridge of Spies"
Should Win - Paul Dano "Love & Mercy"
Commentary - Mark Rylance is on his way to an Oscar, and Paul Dano was brilliant. But Stallone is a star, has never won a Golden Globe, and got to reinvent his most famous character. I think that HFPA voters will take this opportunity to get him on stage.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Alicia Vikander "Ex Machina"
Could Win - Jennifer Jason Leigh "The Hateful Eight"
Should Win - Jennifer Jason Leigh "The Hateful Eight"
Commentary - So I think JJL can still pull this off, even though The Hateful Eight is clearly not as well-liked as other recent Tarantino efforts. But Vikander is the new star, and if Best Actress is too stacked, I think this is the place that they can give her a reward for her huge year. Ex Machina is not usually the type of film these voters go for, but as we all well know, they will change their minds to prove a point.

Best Screenplay - Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer "Spotlight"
Best Animated Film - Inside Out
Best Foreign Language Film - Son of Saul
Best Original Score - Ennio Morricone "The Hateful Eight"
Best Original Song - One Kind of Love from Love and Mercy

Television Predictions
Best Drama Series - Mr. Robot
Best Comedy Series - Transparent
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Rami Malek "Mr. Robot"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Taraji P. Henson "Empire"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Gael Garcia Bernal "Mozart in the Jungle"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Rachel Bloom "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend"
Best TV Movie/Limited Series - Fargo
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Patrick Wilson "Fargo"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Kirsten Dunst "Fargo"
Best Supporting Actor - Christian Slater "Mr. Robot"
Best Supporting Actress - Regina King "American Crime"

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