Since SAG, there has not been any word out of the guilds, and many think that SAG is way off this year. Well the PGA nominations come out Tuesday, and the ACE Eddies tomorrow, and they will either right the ship, or continue to confuse it, but either way, they are the best predictor of Best Picture. So here is my current list of predictions:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
Trumbo
Other Contenders - Straight Outta Compton, Beasts of No Nation, Brooklyn, Inside Out, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight, The Danish Girl, Black Mass, Creed, Sicario, Concussion, 45 Years
This is the make or break moment for Star Wars. If it can get in here, then it really does have a shot at that Best Picture nomination. But it needs to get in here, and it needs the craft guilds to step up. We will see soon enough if the industry is behind the film. Mad Max, The Martian, Spotlight, Room, Carol, and The Revenant all seem like they are destined, and throw in Bridge of Spies, an old school favorite, and The Big Short, the big comedy that is swooping up lots of support in its late-game run. That leaves one spot. Straight Outta Compton seems like the best choice here, a surprise box office success. Brooklyn could be the indie that could, and floundering campaigns for The Danish Girl, Creed, Steve Jobs, or The Hateful Eight could make a comeback. And while there is the separate category for animation, I am hoping that Inside Out gets a boost to its dark horse nominations chances. But I think that despite some weird nods at the SAG Awards, that the love for Trumbo was not a fluke. This is a film about the industry, populated by many talented veteran actors, and is being warmly received. Since it did so well at SAG, I have moved into my top ten, and a PGA nod would bolster that prediction.
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