Friday, February 13, 2015

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Original Score and Original Song

Best Original Score
Will Win - Alexandre Desplat "The Grand Budapest Hotel" 
Could Win - Johann Johannsson "The Theory of Everything" or Hans Zimmer "Interstellar"
Should Win - Alexandre Desplat "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Commentary - This category had defaulted to Johann Johannsson after his Globe win, with the belief that his big and bold score would do well with voters. I expected him to steamroll at BAFTAs, especially since I felt the film was going to do well with its home British crowd (it did by the way with Best Actor and Best British Film). So it said something to me when they went instead went with Alexandre Desplat. He also won the Grammy the same day, quite a feat. There are two things against Desplat that make him less than a slam-dunk going into this final week. First, unlike at the BAFTAs, he is up against himself with a double nod. That could pull his supporters in two different directions and lead to another winner. And, as we saw, BAFTA voters really liked The Grand Budapest Hotel a lot. There is clearly a lot of love of Budapest here as well, but it doesn't necessarily always translate. If Desplat is not their pick, I think voters either go for Hans Zimmer sweeping score in Interstellar, or the person who has been out front for the last month, Johann Johannsson meets expectations and wins. 

Best Original Song
Will Win - John Legend and Common "Glory" from Selma
Could Win - Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me or Shawn Patterson "Everything is Awesome" from The LEGO Movie 
Should Win - John Legend and Common "Glory" from Selma
Commentary - Since the nominees were announced, I had two titles in mind. The first is Globe winner, and Oscar front runner Glory. It is not only a great song, but rewards two Grammy-winning music superstars, and is a way to honor Selma whose only other nomination is Best Picture, and that is probably not going to happen. The other potential is the sentimental vote for Glen Campbell. It is a way to honor a legend who is suffering from a terrible disease, and so this will probably be the only time they will get to do so. But in the last week it occurred to me that there actually is a third contender that is a really strong dark horse. There were a lot of folks upset that The LEGO Movie was snubbed by the animation branch. Then it won the PGA, the BAFTA, and several other major awards along the way. So it turns out the industry was also a bit upset by this snub. This is its only nomination, and if there is still a lot of upset voters, they could seek revenge on their animation brethren by giving it a win for Everything is Awesome, which is a fun song, a huge part of the film's story (which could also put Lost Stars as a dark horse as a I think about it), and simply infectious. It could pull a major upset come Oscar night. 

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