Will Win - Jennifer Lawrence "The Hunger Games: Catching Fire"
Should Win - Sandra Bullock "Gravity", Lupita Nyong'o "12 Years a Slave", or Amy Adams "American Hustle"
Could Win - Bullock, Adams, or Jennifer Aniston "We're the Millers"
Commentary - At first glance, particularly if Oscar watchers are doing the glancing, it would seem that the nominated (and winning performances) of Sandra Bullock, Amy Adams, and Lupita Nyong'o were the obvious front runners. But this is not the Oscars, it is the MTV Movie Awards, and honestly I will be shocked if anyone other than Jennifer Lawrence won this award. If it were for American Hustle, then the MTV voters and Oscar voters would merge, but alas it is for her star power turn in Catching Fire. And while that particular performance may not have the same aspirations of Bullock's, Nyong'o's, or Adams' (Or Lawrence's in Hustle), it is not actually a bad choice. It is the recognition that Lawrence is the biggest star in the world, and that is a fact.