Could Win - Jared Leto "Dallas Buyers Club" or Elizabeth Banks "The Hunger Games: Catching Fire"
Commentary - Right Matthew McConaughey is hot. He just won an Oscar, and gives an Emmy-worthy performance in True Detective. I think this will carry over to a worthy win here, especially considering how much weight he had to lose to play the part. But don't discount his co-star Leto, who is also right off an Oscar win, and could appeal to the MTV crowd due to his band 30 Seconds to Mars. The other possibility is that McConaughey and Leto split votes, and that the over-the-top makeup transformation of Elizabeth Banks in The Hunger Games takes the prize instead.