Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
Should Win/Will Win - Christian Bale
Could Win - Geoffrey Rush "The King's Speech"
Commentary - John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner and Mark Ruffalo should just be happy that they were nominated and try to enjoy a fun weekend, as they are not really even factors in this race. It all comes down to Bale and Rush. While Supporting Actress is a complete mess, I feel that this one will end up going like it is supposed to. Rush definitely is a major threat, as he won the BAFTA, but although Christian Bale is British as well, his role is an American story, and I believe that there is enough support for the movie (and no Amy Adams vote splitting), that he will at least be its token win.