Monday, January 18, 2010

State of the Race: Post Critics Choice and Golden Globes

Now that the dust has settled on this whirlwind weekend, let's take a look at the damage that has been done, and where we sit, before the BAFTA nominees are announced on Thursday.

Animated Feature

If Fantastic Mr. Fox or Princess and the Frog wanted to stand a chance against Up, they really needed an upset victory at either award ceremony, and it got neither. Instead Up also won original score, meaning its support is much broader. I think it's safe to say that Up is quickly becoming a done deal.


Well, the Globes don't have technical categories, but the Critics Choice do, and with a well deserved costume victory for The Young Victoria, Avatar cleared the decks. This is not a real surprise, but if The Hurt Locker wants to triumph at the Oscars it might need to steal at least one of these tech awards, seeing as war movies are technical movies. Just a thought.

Best Supporting Actor and Actress

Done Deal!

Best Actor

Almost a done deal. George Clooney had the best shot at an upset at the Globes, but they joined the Jeff Bridges train. I think they are giving this as not only an awards for his brilliant performance in Crazy Heart, but also as a lifetime achievement award.

Best Actress

Now this one is a real horse race. While I think the BAFTA could potentially boost Carey Mulligan, I think that this is really a two horse race between superstars Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. Right now it all comes down to the SAG. Although it this plays out like 2007, then the SAG winner might not even be enough of a momentum shifter to pull it away from a tight race till the end. My money is on Streep, but I'm not betting the house.

Best Director

Another horse race. I feel a BP/BD split this year for some reason. I think Kathryn Bigelow has a lot of support, and no matter how The Hurt Locker fares, I think see still has a great shot at winning. But do not discount The King of the World. Cameron is a favorite among the Academy, and is more well known than his former spouse. However there are big detractors that may not have enough support to derail Avatar for BP, but may get Cameron out of the way at least.

Best Picture

This race is boiling down to The Hurt Locker v. Avatar. However, do not count out some of the other movies. With the SAG, PGA, and DGA still on the line, anything can happen. For example, Precious and Inglourious Basterds have a great shot at winning the Ensemble victory, which could throw a wrench in the aforementioned supposed battle. However, I see DGA and PGA splitting, and Bigelow and Avatar splitting as well. On a side note, For all the Avatar haters out there. Last year you complained when The Dark Knight didn't get nominated because it got great reviews and box office. Avatar has great reviews and box office, and is WINNING awards, and now we are complaining that the awards givers only see dollar signs...pick and choose. Anyway, it is nice to see that we have no idea what's going on yet. It makes it more fun for people like me.

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