The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions

Avatar: Fire & Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another 

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Wicked: For Good

Other Contenders - The Secret Agent, Weapons, Bugonia, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, F1: The Movie, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Is This Thing On?, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Blue Moon, The Smashing Machine, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, The Lost Bus, Hedda, Pillion, The Testament of Ann Lee, Rental Family, Anemone, Die My Love, After the Hunt, Father, Mother, Sister, Brother, Highest 2 Lowest, The Life of Chuck, The History of Sound

Commentary - A great race is brewing with a lot of great contenders. I feel confident about Hamnet and One Battle After Another, which look like it huge contenders going into the critics awards. In recent years international contenders have done well, and I think that, at the moment, that Sentimental Value and the Palme d'Or winner It Was Just an Accident both have a good shot of making the cut. We have seen first reactions (which are not always accurate) for Wicked: For Good, and if they hold up, it is definitely a huge contender following the success of its predecessor. Marty Supreme still needs to stand the test of the critics, but early word is that it is going to be a big contender this season. Sinners is still going strong, and I think critics will go to bat for it. That leaves three slots. I am going with two big technical contenders: Frankenstein and Avatar: Fire & Ash. Both will probably not do well in the big categories, but could build a solid campaign for the top ten with tons of technical support. Finally, I think Train Dreams could survive the long haul for a stealth Best Picture nod. Outside of those ten, The Secret Agent could be the film that brings three international contenders into the race for the first time, Bugonia could extend Yorgos Lanthimo's Oscar run, and House of Dynamite should be in the conversation for an incredible return for Kathryn Bigelow. Jay Kelly needs some early support to stay alive, as does F1 and Springsteen. Knives Out Returns, don't discount Bradley Cooper or Richard Linklater, and No Other Choice should be in the conversation. Don't discount The Smashing Machine, The Lost Bus, Hedda, The Testament of Ann Lee, and a plethora of other indie potentials. 

35th Gotham Award Nominations

Best Feature

Bugonia

Ari Aster, Ed Guiney, Lars Knudsen, Jerry Kyoungboum Ko, Yorgos Lanthimos, Miky Lee, Andrew Lowe, Emma Stone, producers (Focus Features)

East of Wall

Kate Beecroft, Shannon Moss, Melanie Ramsayer, Lila Yacoub, producers (Sony Pictures Classics)

Familiar Touch

Alexandra Byer, Sarah Friedland, Matthew Thurm, producers (Music Box Films)

Hamnet

Nicolas Gonda, Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes, Steven Spielberg, producers (Focus Features)

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Ronald Bronstein, Eli Bush, Richie Doyle, Conor Hannon, Sara Murphy, Josh Safdie, Ryan Zacarias, producers (A24)

Lurker

Galen Core, Archie Madekwe, Marc Marrie, Charlie McDowell, Francesco Melzi d’Eril, Duncan Montgomery, Alex Orlovsky, Olmo Schnabel, Jack Selby, producers (MUBI)

One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy, Adam Somner, producers (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Sorry, Baby

Mark Ceryak, Barry Jenkins, Adele Romanski, producers (A24)

The Testament of Ann Lee

Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold, Joshua Horsfield, Gregory Jankilevitsch, Mark Lampert, Lillian LaSalle, Andrew Morrison, Viktória Petrányi, Klaudia Smieja-Rostworowska, producers (Searchlight Pictures)

Train Dreams

Michael Heimler, Will Janowitz, Marissa McMahon, Ashley Schlaifer, Teddy Schwarzman (producers) (Netflix)

Best International Feature

It Was Just an Accident

Philippe Martin, Jafar Panahi, producers (NEON)

No Other Choice

Park Chan-Wook, Alexandre Gavras, Michèle Ray Gavras, Back Jisun, producers (NEON)

Nouvelle Vague

Laurent Pétin, Michèle Pétin, producers (Netflix)

Resurrection

Charles Gillibert, Yang Lele, Shan Zuolong, producers (Janus Films)

Sound of Falling

Lucas Schmidt, Maren Schmitt, producers (MUBI)

Best Documentary Feature 

2000 Meters to Andriivka

Mstyslav Chernov, director; Raney Aronson-Rath, Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, producers (PBS)

BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions

Kahlil Joseph, director; Onye Anyanwu, Kahlil Joseph, David Linde, Anikah McLaren, James Shani, Steven Soderbergh, producers (Rich Spirit)

My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow

Julia Loktev, director; Julia Loktev, producer (self-distributed)

The Perfect Neighbor

Geeta Gandbhir, director; Sam Bisbee, Geeta Gandbhir, Nikon Kwantu, Alisa Payne, producers (Netflix)

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Sepideh Farsi, director; Javad Djavahery, Sepideh Farsi, producers (Kino Lorber)

Best Director

Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (NEON)

Kelly Reichardt, The Mastermind (MUBI)

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Oliver Laxe, Sirât (NEON)

Breakthrough Director

Constance Tsang, Blue Sun Palace (Dekanalog)

Carson Lund, Eephus (Music Box Films)

Sarah Friedland, Familiar Touch (Music Box Films)

Akinola Davies Jr., My Father’s Shadow (MUBI)

Harris Dickinson, Urchin (1-2 Special)

Best Original Screenplay

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Mary Bronstein (A24)

It Was Just an Accident, Jafar Panahi (NEON)

The Secret Agent, Kleber Mendonça Filho (NEON)

Sorry, Baby, Eva Victor (A24)

Sound of Falling, Louise Peter, Mascha Schilinski (MUBI)

Best Adapted Screenplay

No Other Choice, Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-Mi, Jahye Lee, Don McKellar (NEON)

One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Pillion, Harry Lighton (A24)

Preparation for the Next Life, Martyna Majok (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)

Train Dreams, Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Performance 

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (Focus Features)

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (NEON)

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)

Sopé Dìrísù, My Father’s Shadow (MUBI)

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)

Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love (MUBI)

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (NEON)

Josh O’Connor, The Mastermind (MUBI)

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)

Tessa Thompson, Hedda (Orion Pictures/Amazon/MGM Studios)

Outstanding Supporting Performance

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (Netflix)

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value (NEON) 

Indya Moore, Father Mother Sister Brother (MUBI)

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (Netflix)

Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)

Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion (A24)

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (NEON)

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Breakthrough Performer

A$AP Rocky, Highest 2 Lowest (A24)

Sebiye Behtiyar, Preparation for the Next Life (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Abou Sangaré, Souleymane’s Story (Kino Lorber)

Tonatiuh, Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside Attractions, Lionsgate, LD Entertainment)

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Director

Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions

Chloe Zhao "Hamnet"

Josh Safdie "Marty Supreme"

Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"

Joachim Trier "Sentimental Value"

Ryan Coogler "Sinners"

Other Contenders - Jafar Panahi "It Was Just an Accident", Kathryn Bigelow "A House of Dynamite", Noah Baumbach "Jay Kelly", Yorgos Lanthimos "Bugonia", Kleber Mendonça Filho "The Secret Agent", Park Chan-wook "No Other Choice", James Cameron "Avatar: Fire & Ash", Guillermo Del Toro "Frankenstein", Benny Safdie "The Smashing Machine", Paul Greengrass "The Lost Bus", Scott Cooper "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere", Jon M. Chu "Wicked: For Good", Zach Cregger "Weapons", Bradley Cooper "Is Thing On?", Joseph Kosinski "F1: The Movie", Richard Linklater "Nouvelle Vague",  Jim Jarmusch "Father Mother Sister Brother", Clint Bentley "Train Dreams"

Commentary - A tough race that, if recent years are any indication, could come down to the wire. Chloe Zhao and Paul Thomas Anderson are our front after rave reviews for Hamnet and One Battle After Another. Earlier contenders like Joachim Trier and Ryan Coogler remain strong as well, continuing to stay in the forefront through the fall festival season. Finally, while we don't have official reviews yet, critics are high on Josh Safdie and Marty Supreme. After those five, there are a lot of big contenders. Panahi won the Palme D'or, Filho is rising, and Chan-wook is overdue for some recognition. Previous nominees and winners like Katherine Bigelow, Yorgos Lanthimos, James Cameron, Guillermo Del Toro, Paul Greengrass, and Richard Linklater are hoping to get back in the race. Nominees in other categories like Noah Baumbach, Clint Bentley, and Bradley Cooper are hoping to finally get a directing nod. Finally newcomers and veterans who have yet to cross into the top five include Benny Safdie, Jon M. Chu, Scott Cooper, Jim Jarmusch, Joseph Kosinski, and Zach Cregger. 

10th Annual Critics Choice Documentary Award Nominations

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

2000 Meters to Andriivka (Frontline Features / The Associated Press)

The Alabama Solution (HBO Max)

Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)

Cover-Up (Netflix)

Deaf President Now! (Apple TV)

Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)

Pee-wee as Himself (HBO Max)

The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)

Riefenstahl (Kino Lorber)

The Tale of Silyan (National Geographic)

BEST DIRECTOR

Mstyslav Chernov – 2000 Meters to Andriivka (Frontline Features / The Associated Press)

Petra Costa – Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)

Nyle DiMarco & Davis Guggenheim – Deaf President Now! (Apple TV)

Geeta Gandbhir – The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)

Andrew Jarecki & Charlotte Kaufman – The Alabama Solution (HBO Max)

Raoul Peck – Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)

BEST FIRST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

Art for Everybody (Tremolo Productions)

Grand Theft Hamlet (Mubi)

My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay (HBO Max)

Seeds (Interior Films)

Stiller & Meara: Nothing is Lost (Apple TV)

Strange Journey: The Story of Rocky Horror (Margot Station)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Ben Bernhard – Architecton (A24)

Jean Dakar – The Tale of Silyan (National Geographic)

Elizabeth Lo – Mistress Dispeller (Oscilloscope)

Lars Erlend Tubaas Øymo & Tor Edvin Eliassen – Folktales (Magnolia Pictures)

Brittany Shyne – Seeds (Interior Films)

Toby Strong, Doug Anderson (Underwater Photography) – Ocean with David Attenborough (National Geographic)

BEST EDITING

Michael Harte – Deaf President Now! (Apple TV)

James Lester & Oz Rodríguez, John MacDonald (Music Montage)  – Ladies & Gentlemen… 50 Years of SNL Music (NBC)

Viridiana Lieberman – The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)

Page Marsella – The Alabama Solution (HBO Max)

Michelle Mizner – 2000 Meters to Andriivka (Frontline Features / The Associated Press)

Alexandra Strauss – Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)

BEST SCORE

Alexei Aigui – Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)

Kris Bowers – The Eyes of Ghana (Breakwater Studios / Higher Ground Media)

Laura Heinzinger – The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)

Claudia Sarne – Love + War (National Geographic)

Sam Slater – 2000 Meters to Andriivka (Frontline Features / The Associated Press)

Paweł Szymański – Trains (EPF Media / Drygas Film Production)

BEST NARRATION

2000 Meters to Andriivka (Frontline Features / The Associated Press)

   Written by Mstyslav Chernov

   Performed by Mstyslav Chernov

The American Revolution (PBS)

   Written by Geoffrey C. Ward

   Performed by Peter Coyote

The Americas (NBC)

   Written by Michael Gunton, Holly Spearing, Steve Cole, Kathryn Jeffs, Matt Richards, Giles    

   Badger, Victoria Buckley, Alex Griffiths, Hannah Hoare, Poppy Riddle, Gillian Taylor, Nikki 

   Waldron, Evie Wright, Charlotte Bostock, Victoria Bobin, & Ingrid Kvale

   Performed by Tom Hanks

Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)

   Written by Petra Costa

Co-Writers: Alessandra Orofino, Nels Bangerter, David Barker, Tina Baz

   Performed by Petra Costa

Octopus! (Prime Video)

   Written by Gabriel Bisset-Smith

   Performed by Phoebe Waller-Bridge

Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)

   Written by George Orwell, Adapted by Raoul Peck

   Performed by Damian Lewis

BEST ARCHIVAL DOCUMENTARY

One to One: John & Yoko (HBO Max, Magnolia Pictures)

Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)

The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)

Riefenstahl (Kino Lorber)

Trains (EPF Media / Drygas Film Production)

WTO/99 (Foghorn Features)

BEST HISTORICAL DOCUMENTARY

The American Revolution (PBS)

Cover-Up (Netflix)

Eyes on the Prize III: We Who Believe in Freedom Cannot Rest 1977-2015 (HBO Max)

Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time (National Geographic)

Number One on the Call Sheet (Apple TV)

Riefenstahl (Kino Lorber)

BEST BIOGRAPHICAL DOCUMENTARY

John Candy: I Like Me (Prime Video)

Love + War (National Geographic)

Mr. Scorsese (Apple TV)

My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay (HBO Max)

Pee-wee as Himself (HBO Max)

Stiller & Meara: Nothing is Lost (Apple TV)

BEST MUSIC DOCUMENTARY

Becoming Led Zeppelin (Sony Pictures Classics)

Billy Joel: And So It Goes (HBO Max)

Bono: Stories of Surrender (Apple TV)

It’s Never Over, Jeff Buckley (HBO Max, Magnolia Pictures)

Ladies & Gentlemen… 50 Years of SNL Music (NBC)

Sly Lives! (aka The Burden of Black Genius) (Hulu)

BEST POLITICAL DOCUMENTARY

The Alabama Solution (HBO Max)

Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)

Deaf President Now! (Apple TV)

The Librarians (Independent Lens)

My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (Marminchilla)

Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)

BEST SCIENCE/NATURE DOCUMENTARY

The Americas (NBC)

Checkpoint Zoo (Abramorama)

The Last Rhinos: A New Hope (National Geographic)

Ocean with David Attenborough (National Geographic)

Octopus! (Prime Video)

Pangolin: Kulu’s Journey (Netflix)

BEST SPORTS DOCUMENTARY

America’s Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders (Netflix)

America’s Team: The Gambler and His Cowboys (Netflix)

Big Dreams: Little League World Series 2024 (ESPN Films)

Full Court Press (ESPN+)

Southpaw: The Life and Legacy of Jim Abbott (ESPN)

We Beat the Dream Team (HBO Max, TNT Sports)

BEST TRUE CRIME DOCUMENTARY

The Alabama Solution (HBO Max)

Gone Girls: The Long Island Serial Killer (Netflix)

The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)

Predators (MTV Documentary Films / Paramount+)

Unknown Number: The High School Catfish (Netflix)

The Yogurt Shop Murders (HBO Max)

BEST SHORT DOCUMENTARY

All the Empty Rooms (Netflix)

Classroom 4 (PBS)

The Devil is Busy (HBO Max)

Exodus (Message Pictures)

Fiddler on the Moon: Judaism in Space (Ironbound Films)

Sallie’s Ashes (Robi Creative)

Saving Superman (Switchboard)

Shanti Rides Shotgun (Voyager)

BEST LIMITED DOCUMENTARY SERIES

The American Revolution (PBS)

Eyes on the Prize III: We Who Believe in Freedom Cannot Rest 1977-2015 (HBO Max)

Gone Girls: The Long Island Serial Killer (Netflix)

Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time (National Geographic)

Magic City: An American Fantasy (Starz)

Mr. Scorsese (Apple TV)

SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night (Peacock)

The Yogurt Shop Murders (HBO Max)

BEST ONGOING DOCUMENTARY SERIES

30 for 30 (ESPN Films)

American Masters (PBS)

The Reluctant Traveler (Apple TV)

Solo Traveling with Tracee Ellis Ross (Roku Channel)

Trafficked with Mariana van Zeller (National Geographic)

Trainwreck (Netflix)

52nd Daytime Emmy Award Winners

Outstanding Daytime Drama Series

General Hospital

Outstanding Lead Performance in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor

Paul Telfer - Days of our Lives

Outstanding Lead Performance in a Daytime Drama Series: Actress

Nancy Lee Grahn - General Hospital

Outstanding Supporting Performance in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor

Jonathan Jackson - General Hospital

Outstanding Supporting Performance in a Daytime Drama Series: Actress

Susan Walters - The Young and the Restless

Outstanding Emerging Talent in a Daytime Drama Series

Lisa Yamada - The Bold and the Beautiful

Outstanding Guest Performance in a Daytime Drama Series

Alley Mills - General Hospital

Outstanding Directing Team for a Daytime Drama Series

General Hospital

Outstanding Writing Team for a Daytime Drama Series

General Hospital

Outstanding Daytime Talk Series

Live with Kelly and Mark

Outstanding Daytime Talk Series Host

Drew Barrymore - The Drew Barrymore Show

Outstanding Culinary Instructional Series

Delicious Miss Brown

Outstanding Culinary Cultural Series

Chasing Flavor with Carla Hall

Outstanding Culinary Host

Kardea Brown - Delicious Miss Brown

Outstanding Arts and Popular Culture Program

Black Barbie

Outstanding Entertainment News Series

Entertainment Tonight

Outstanding Instructional/How-To Program

Fixer Upper: The Lakehouse

Outstanding Legal/Courtroom Program

Hot Bench

Outstanding Lifestyle Program

You Are What You Eat: A Twin Experiment

Outstanding Science and Nature Program

The Secret Lives of Animals

Outstanding Short Form Program

Ballin' Out

Outstanding Travel and Adventure Program

Expedition Unknown

Outstanding Daytime Special

Disney Parks Magical Christmas Day Parade

Outstanding Daytime Personality - Daily

Cassie DiLaura, Denny Directo, Kevin Frazier, Rachel Smith & Nischelle Turner - Entertainment Tonight

Outstanding Daytime Personality - Non-Daily

Sir David Attenborough - Secret Lives of Orangutans

Outstanding Directing Team for a Multiple Camera Daytime Non-Fiction Program

The Drew Barrymore Show

Outstanding Directing Team for a Single Camera Daytime Non-Fiction Program

Secret Lives of Orangutans

Outstanding Writing Team for a Daytime Non-Fiction Program

Black Barbie

Outstanding Art Direction/Set Decoration/Scenic Design

Mysteries of the Terracotta Warriors

Outstanding Regional Content in a Daytime Genre

createid: SARA: A Life in Dreams and Symbols

Idaho Public Television [Northwest Chapter]

Outstanding Casting

Days of our Lives

Outstanding Cinematography

National Parks: USA

Outstanding Costume Design/Styling

General Hospital

Outstanding Single Camera Editing

The Secret Lives of Animals

Outstanding Multiple Camera Editing

Resurrected Rides

Outstanding Hairstyling and Makeup

The Drew Barrymore Show

Outstanding Lighting Direction

The Kelly Clarkson Show

Outstanding Main Title and Graphic Design

Hack Your Health - The Secrets of Your Gut

Outstanding Music Direction and Composition

Secret Lives of Orangutans

Outstanding Sound Mixing and Sound Editing

The Secret Lives of Animals

Outstanding Live Sound Mixing and Sound Editing

The Kelly Clarkson Show

Outstanding Technical Direction, Camerawork, Video

Disney Parks Magical Christmas Day Parade

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Actor

Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions

Lee Byung-hun "No Other Choice"

Timothee Chalamet "Marty Supreme"

Leonardo DiCaprio "One Battle After Another"

Michael B. Jordan "Sinners"

Wagner Moura "The Secret Agent"

Other Contenders - Jeremy Allen White "Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere", Dwayne Johnson "The Smashing Machine", Jesse Plemmons "Bugonia", Ethan Hawke "Blue Moon", Joel Edgerton "Train Dreams", George Clooney "Jay Kelly", Brendan Fraser "Rental Family", Oscar Isaac "Frankenstein", Channing Tatum "Roofman", Hugh Jackman "Ballad of a Small Player", Daniel Day-Lewis "Anemone", Will Arnett "Is This Thing On?", Tonatiuh "Kiss of the Spider Woman", Guillaume Marbeck "Nouvelle Vague", Russell Crowe "Nuremberg", Matthew McConaughey "The Lost Bus", Paul Mescal "The History of Sound", Dylan O'Brien "Twinless", Denzel Washington "Highest 2 Lowest"

Commentary - We have now seen Marty Supreme, and early word is that this is performance of Timothee Chalamet's career so far. Leonardo DiCaprio is fantastic in One Battle After Another, and is owed a nod after his snub for Killers of the Flower Moon. Sinners seems to be holding strong, and I think Michael B. Jordan could finally get an Oscar nod. The last two slots are interesting. I am going out on a limb with some international contenders. Wagner Moura has made a splash stateside, and is getting raves for The Secret Agent. Same for Lee Byung-hun and No Other Choice. I am not confident, but some of the bigger contenders at the beginning of the season are questions marks going into the critics awards. Jeremy Allen White and Dwayne Johnson both got rave reviews for mixed review projects, and after The Smashing Machine bombed, I wonder how strong its awards chances are moving forward. Previous nominees/winners like Jesse Plemons, Ethan Hawke, George Clooney, Brendan Fraser, Hugh Jackman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Russell Crowe, Matthew McConaughey, Paul Mescal, Will Arnett, and Denzel Washington all have buzzed projects. Veterans like Joel Edgerton, Oscar Isaac, Channing Tatum, and Dylan O'Brien could breakthrough, and watch out for a surprise from the likes of Tonatiuh and Guillaume Marbeck. 

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Actress

Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions

Jessie Buckley "Hamnet"

Rose Byrne "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You"

Cynthia Erivo "Wicked: For Good" 

Chase Infinity "One Battle After Another"

Renate Reinsve "Sentimental Value" 

Other Contenders - Emma Stone "Bugonia", Jennifer Lawrence "Die My Love", Amanda Seyfried "The Testament of Ann Lee", Tessa Thompson "Hedda", Kate Hudson "Song Sung Blue", Julia Garner "Weapons", Laura Dern "Is This Thing On?", Sydney Sweeney "Christy", Julia Roberts "After the Hunt", Jodie Foster "Vie Privee", June Squibb "Eleanor the Great", Emma Mackey "Ella McKay", Dakota Johnson "Materialists", Eva Victor "Sorry, Baby", Cate Blanchett "Father, Mother, Sister, Brother"

Commentary - An interesting race, with a lot of contenders competing for films that may not be Oscar contenders across the board. First, the obvious ones. Jessie Buckley and Renate Reinsve have done well so far with critics, and I expect both of their films to compete across the categories this season. Cynthia Erivo is going to have a huge stand out performance if the musical is any indication. We'll have to see how For Good plays, but I have a feeling she is in the race. Chase Infinity decided to step up to lead, and in this year, it might be a great move. I think she is in. Finally, the buzz for Rose Byrne is high, but that film needs to get some traction in the critics awards. On the outside of the five are Oscar winners Emma Stone and Jennifer Lawrence, who are both in challenging films that might not connect with voters. Amanda Seyfried's The Testament of Ann Lee is an interesting vehicle, previous nominee Kate Hudson is an unknown for Song Sung Blue, Julia Garner is a test of the power of Weapons, and Laura Dern could get back in for Is This Thing On? Tessa Thompson and Julia Roberts are great in films with mixed reactions, Jodie Foster and June Squibb are legends, Sydney Sweeney got great reviews, and don't discount Dakota Johnson, Eva Victor, and the legendary Cate Blanchet. 

41st Casting Society of America (CSA) Television Award Nominations

Film, First Released for Television or Streaming

BRIDGET JONES MAD ABOUT THE BOY: Lucy Bevan, Olivia Grant, Associate Casting Director: Lucy Downes

CARRY-ON: Chelsea Ellis Bloch, Marisol Roncali

MOUNTAINHEAD: Francine Maisler, Associate Casting Directors: Molly Rose, Amber Wakefield, Location Casting Director: Jeff Johnson

NONNAS: Mary Vernieu, Lindsay Graham Ahanonu, Findley Davidson, Associate Casting Director: Mark Droter

OUT OF MY MIND: Kerry Barden, Paul Schnee, Associate Casting Directors: Roya Semnanian, Rachel Goldman, Location Casting Directors: John Buchan, Jason Knight

REBEL RIDGE: Francine Maisler, Molly Rose, Location Casting Director: Meagan Lewis

YOU’RE CORDIALLY INVITED: Nicole Abellera Hallman, Associate Casting Director: Erica Johnson, Location Casting Directors: Meagan Lewis, Rebecca Carfagna

Television Series: Comedy

ABBOTT ELEMENTARY (Season 4): Wendy O’Brien, Chris Gehrt

HACKS (Season 4): Linda Lowy

ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING (Season 4): Bernard Telsey, Tiffany Little Canfield, Destiny Lilly, Associate Casting Director: Danielle King

SHRINKING (Season 2): Brett Benner, Debby Romano, Associate Casting Director: Becca Burgess

SURVIVAL OF THE THICKEST (Season 2): Erica A. Hart, Associate Casting Director: Briana Dunlay

THE BEAR (Season 3): Jeanie Bacharach, Location Casting Directors: Jennifer Rudnicke, Mickie Paskal, Location Associate Casting Director: Kaitlin Shaw

Television Series: Drama

BAD SISTERS (Season 2): Nina Gold, Lucy Amos

SEVERANCE (Season 2): Rachel Tenner, Associate Casting Director: Rick Messina, Location Casting Director: Bess Fifer

SLOW HORSES (Season 4): Nina Gold, Melissa Gethin Clarke

THE DIPLOMAT (Season 2): Julie Schubert, Lucinda Syson, Natasha Vincent

THE HANDMAID’S TALE (Season 6): Sharon Bialy, Sherry Thomas, Russell Scott, Associate Casting Director: Stacia Kimler, Location Casting Director: Robin D. Cook, Location Associate Casting Director: Jonathan Oliveira

THE LAST OF US (Season 2): Mary Vernieu, Lindsay Graham Ahanonu, Sydney Shircliff, Location Casting Directors: Corinne Clark, Jennifer Page, Location Associate Casting Director: Megan Bayliss

Television Pilot and First Season: Comedy

DELI BOYS: Seth Yanklewitz, Location Casting Directors: Marisa Ross, Christal Karge, Location Associate Casting Director: Jenn Noyes

ENGLISH TEACHER: Gayle Keller, John Papsidera, Associate Casting Director: Amelia Rasche McCarthy, Location Casting Directors: Chase Paris, Tara Feldstein Bennett

ÉTOILE: Cindy Tolan, Anne Davison, Associate Casting Director: Nicholas Petrovich, Location Casting Director: Juliette Ménager

NOBODY WANTS THIS: Brett Greenstein, Collin Daniel, Associate Casting Director: Alexa Pereira

OVERCOMPENSATING: Jessica Kelly, Location Casting Director: Lisa Parasyn

THE STUDIO: Melissa Kostenbauder, Francine Maisler, Associate Casting Director: Jesse Haddock

Television Pilot and First Season: Drama

DEPT Q: Olivia Scott-Webb

MATLOCK: Michelle Wade Byrd, Mary Vernieu, Associate Casting Director: Samantha Rood, Location Casting Director: Robin D. Cook, Location Associate Casting Director: Jonathan Oliveira

PARADISE: Tiffany Little Canfield, Josh Einsohn, Associate Casting Director: Brian Sutow

THE DAY OF THE JACKAL: Nina Gold, Martin Ware

THE PITT: Cathy Sandrich Gelfond, Associate Casting Director: Seth Caskey

YOUR FRIENDS & NEIGHBORS: Cindy Tolan, Suzanne Ryan, Associate Casting Director: Nicholas Petrovich

Limited Series

ADOLESCENCE: Shaheen Baig

DISCLAIMER: Lucy Bevan, Emily Brockmann, Victor Jenkins, Associate Casting Director: Katie Brydon

DYING FOR SEX: Jeanie Bacharach, Associate Casting Director: Susan Esrock, Location Casting Director: Jessica Daniels

MONSTERS: THE LYLE AND ERIK MENENDEZ STORY: Tiffany Little Canfield, Josh Einsohn, Bernard Telsey, Associate Casting Director: Rose Bochner

THE PENGUIN: Cindy Tolan, Suzanne Ryan, Associate Casting Director: Nicholas Petrovich

THE PERFECT COUPLE: Robert J. Ulrich, Jina Jay, Eric Dawson, Carol Kritzer, Location Casting Directors: Angela Peri, Lisa Lobel

Reality Series: Competition

LOVE ISLAND USA (Season 6): Jodi Thomas, Beyhan Oguz

RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE (Season 17): Goloka Bolte, Michelle Redwine, Adam Cook

THE CHALLENGE: BATTLE OF THE ERAS (Season 40): Damon Furberg, Lisi Alpert

THE CIRCLE (Season 7): Erin Tomasello, Casting Producers: Sena Rich, Joy Herrera

THE GOLDEN BACHELORETTE (Season 1): Jacqueline Pitman

TOP CHEF (Season 22): Ron Mare, Casting Producers: Heather Allyn, Sena Rich, Joy Barrett

Reality Series: Structured & Unstructured

QUEER EYE (Season 9): Pamela Vallarelli, Jessica Jorgensen, Natalie Pino

SHARK TANK (Season 16): Mindy Zemrak, Casting Producer: Ashley Holt

SUMMER HOUSE (Season 9): Diona Vaughan Mankowitz

UNSOLVED MYSTERIES (Season 4): Paul Sinacore

VANDERPUMP VILLA (Season 2): Damon Furberg, Casting Producer: Melissa Kellner

Live Action Children & Family Series

ME (Season 1): Josh Einsohn, Associate Casting Director: Ally Bader, Location Casting Director: Erica Bream

TAB TIME (Season 3): Nickole Doro, Associate Casting Director: Devon Brady

THE THUNDERMANS: UNDERCOVER (Season 1): Nickole Doro, Shayna Sherwood, Associate Casting Director: Devon Brady, Location Casting Director: Colleen Bolton

WIZARDS BEYOND WAVERLY PLACE (Season 1): Alexis Frank Koczara, Christine Smith Shevchenko, Associate Casting Director: Gianna Butler

XO, KITTY (Season 2): Lyndsey Baldasare, David H. Rapaport, Associate Casting Director: Claire Yenson, Location Casting Director: Su Kim

Animated Program For Television

ALMA’S WAY (Season 2): Elaine Del Valle

BIG MOUTH (Season 8): Julie Ashton

BOB’S BURGERS (Season 15): Julie Ashton

EVERYBODY STILL HATES CHRIS (Season 1): Julie Ashton

FAMILY GUY (Season 23): Christine Terry, Jackie Sollitto

WIN OR LOSE (Season 1): Natalie Lyon, Kevin Reher, Kate Hansen-Birnbaum

WONDER PETS: IN THE CITY (Season 1): Danielle Pretsfelder Demchick, Associate Casting Director: Elizabeth Hay

YOUR FRIENDLY NEIGHBORHOOD SPIDERMAN (Season 1): Sara Jane Sherman

International Television Series

MISS FALLACI (Season 1): Maurilio Mangano, Cassandra Han

OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY (Season 1): Alexandra Montag

RHYTHM + FLOW FRANCE (Season 3): Jennifer Teixido, Mélanie Gomes

Broadway: Comedy or Drama

ENGLISH: Stephen Kopel, Associate Casting Director: Sujotta Pace

GLENGARRY GLEN ROSS: Will Cantler, Destiny Lilly

GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK: David Caparelliotis

OTHELLO: Duncan Stewart

PURPOSE: JC Clementz, Paul Davis, Erica Jensen

YELLOW FACE: Carrie Gardner, Jillian Cimini, Associate Casting Director: Sujotta Pace

Broadway: Musical

BOOP! THE MUSICAL: Tara Rubin, Kevin Metzger-Timson, Associate Casting Director: Olivia Paige West

BUENA VISTA SOCIAL CLUB: Xavier Rubiano, Tara Rubin, Associate Casting Director: Frankie Ramirez

DEATH BECOMES HER: Tara Rubin, Kevin Metzger-Timson, Associate Casting Director: Frankie Ramirez

MAYBE HAPPY ENDING: Craig Burns, Associate Casting Director: Jimmy Larkin

REAL WOMEN HAVE CURVES: Victor Vazquez, Duncan Stewart

SUNSET BOULEVARD: Jim Carnahan, Jason Thinger, Stuart Burt

New York Theater: Comedy or Drama

BECOMING EVE: Claire Yenson

EURYDICE: David Caparelliotis

GHOSTS: Daniel Swee

GRANGEVILLE: David Caparelliotis

SH!T. MEET. FAN: Bernard Telsey, Will Cantler, Destiny Lilly

THE ANTIQUITIES: Alaine Alldaffer, Lauren Port

New York Theater: Musical

BIG GAY JAMBOREE: Stephen Kopel, Associate Casting Director: Neal Buckley

DRAG: THE MUSICAL: Ryan Bernard Tymensky

EMPIRE RECORDS: Karyn Casl, Destiny Lilly

JERSEY BOYS: Claire Burke, Merri Sugarman, Associate Casting Director: Spencer Gualdoni

THE JONATHAN LARSON PROJECT: Rachel Hoffman, Associate Casting Director: Charlie Hano

WE LIVE IN CAIRO: Claire Yenson

Los Angeles Theater

A DOLL’S HOUSE, PART 2: Ryan Bernard Tymensky

DOG SEES GOD: CONFESSIONS OF A TEENAGE BLOCKHEAD: Zachary Spiegel

GREEN DAY’S AMERICAN IDIOT: Beth Lipari

LA CAGE AUX FOLLES: Ryan Bernard Tymensky

NOISES OFF: JC Clementz, Phyllis Schuringa

STEPHEN SONDHEIM’S OLD FRIENDS: Tara Rubin, Xavier Rubiano, Peter Van Dam, Associate Casting Director: Louis DiPaolo

Regional Theater

A LITTLE NIGHT MUSIC: Mark Brandon

A RAISIN IN THE SUN: Becca McCracken

APPROPRIATE: David Caparelliotis

BERLIN: Becca McCracken

BETRAYAL: Lauren Port

EAST TEXAS HOT LINKS: Becca McCracken

ENGLISH: Stephanie Klapper

FAT HAM: Lauren Port

MIDNIGHT IN THE GARDEN OF GOOD AND EVIL: Lauren Port, Patrick Goodwin

Theater Tours

&JULIET: Stephen Kopel, Carrie Gardner, Jillian Cimini, Associate Casting Directors: Neal Buckley, Sujotta Pace

JAJA’S AFRICAN HAIR BRAIDING: Kelly Gillespie, David Caparelliotis, Erica A. Hart

KIMBERLY AKIMBO: Craig Burns, Associate Casting Director: Jimmy Larkin

PARADE: Craig Burns

SHUCKED: Stephen Kopel, Associate Casting Director: Neal Buckley

THE WIZ: Olivia Paige West, Xavier Rubiano

Special Theatrical Performance

DREAMGIRLS: Destiny Lilly, Rashad Naylor

LES MISERABLES: Lindsay Levine, Associate Casting Director: Charlie Hano

NINE: Geoff Josselson

THE 25TH ANNUAL PUTNAM COUNTY SPELLING BEE: Geoff Josselson

TITANIC: Craig Burns, Rachel Hoffman

URINETOWN: Kevin Metzger-Timson, Associate Casting Director: Louis DiPaolo

Short Form Series

BLISS TALENT: Rachel Goldman

DIE HART (Season 3): Chrissy Fiorilli-Ellington, Associate Casting Director: Jane Flowers, Location Casting Director: Tara Feldstein Bennett

LOVE, DEATH + ROBOTS (Season 4): Ivy Isenberg, Natasha Vincent, Associate Casting Director: Tanya Giang

THE WAREHOUSE PHASE: Helen Geier, Kendra Shay Clark

VERY IMPORTANT PEOPLE (Season 2): Jazzy Collins

Short Film

ADO: Ally Beans

BEFORE THE WINTER: Tanya Giang

CORPSE FISHING: Matthew Glasner

EXCEPTION: Hamzah Saman, Kara Sullivan

LEADING MAN: Tineka Becker

TEEN MARY: Marin Hope

THE COCKROACH: Sunday Boling Kennedy

Commercials

LISTENING IS A FORM OF LOVE: Angela Mickey, Associate Casting Director: Aika Greenidge

NFL FOOTBALL COUNTRY 2024: Caitlin D. Jones

ON, DREAM TOGETHER, GLOBAL CAMPAIGN: Victor Vazquez, Allison Twardziak

ROBOROCK: EVA – CELEBRATING A DECADE OF PIONEERING INNOVATION: Katie Griffin, Ali Coffey

RSA: DRUG DRIVING CAMPAIGN – CONSEQUENCES: Katie Griffin, Ali Coffey

THE NICE GUYS: Hunter McHugh

WALMART – MAKING OF DEALS OF DESIRE: Chrissy Fiorilli-Ellington, Associate Casting Directors: Ally Bader, Brent Hagata

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions

Miles Caton "Sinners"

Paul Mescal "Hamnet" 

Sean Penn "One Battle After Another" 

Adam Sandler "Jay Kelly"

Stellan Skarsgard "Sentimental Value" 

Other Contenders - Idris Elba "A House of Dynamite", William H. Macy "Train Dreams", Andrew Scott "Blue Moon", Benicio Del Toro "One Battle After Another", Jacob Elrodi "Frankenstein", Jeremy Strong "Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere", Delroy Lindo "Sinners", Josh O'Connor "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story". Mark Hamill "The Life of Chuck", Diego Luna "Kiss of the Spider Woman", Jonathan Bailey "Wicked: For Good", Jacobi Jupe "Hamnet", Sean Bean "Anemone", Jack O'Connell "Sinners", Billy Crudup "Jay Kelly", Bradley Cooper "Is This Thing On?", Woody Harrelson "Ella McCay", Christoph Waltz "Frankenstein", Takehiro Hira "Rental Family", Akira Emoto "Rental Family"

Commentary - The most wide open of the acting races in my opinion, with probably 20 contenders for I think two spots that are completely up in the air. Three spots seemed locked: Paul Mescal, Stellan Skarsgaard, and Sean Penn, who are all in big Best Picture contenders, and their performances received nothing short of raves. All are also well-known veterans with a lot of support from the industry. The last two slots? Who knows? I am keeping Miles Caton for Sinners, because I am sure that a huge awards push will put it back in the spotlight. Although his slot could go to his co-star Delroy Lindo instead. I am also, for now, keeping Adam Sandler, who might be the last man standing for Jay Kelly in terms of its Oscar hopes. This concerns me, and I feel like he is just a holdover placeholder until some of the critics awards star rolling in in less than two months. Right on the outside are a plethora of previous nominees and winners like William H. Macy (has Hollywood forgiven him for the scandal), Benicio Del Toro (would be a fun nomination), Jeremy Strong (will the industry save him like they did last year for The Apprentice?), Bradley Cooper, Woody Harrelson, and Christoph Waltz. There are also a bunch of fantastic veterans hoping to breakthrough like Andrew Scott, Idris Elba, Diego Luna, Mark Hamill, Jonathan Bailey (SAG nominee last year), Jacob Elrodi, Sean Bean, Jack O'Connell, and Billy Crudup. Finally, Rental Family got mixed reviews but Hira and Emoto could still be in play, and watch out for the next child star Jacobi Jupe who I hear is a scene-stealer in Hamnet. 

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao "Hamnet"

Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jahye Lee, and Don McKellar "No Other Choice"

Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"

Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar "Train Dreams"

Rian Johnson "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" 

Other Contenders - Craig Brewer "Song Sung Blue", Will Tracy "Bugonia", Guillermo Del Toro "Frankenstein", Holly Gent and Vincent Palmo Jr. "Nouvelle Vague", Scott Cooper "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere", Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox "Wicked: For Good", James Cameron, Josh Friedman, Rick Jaffa, Shane Salerno, Amanda Silver "Avatar: Fire & Ash", Lynne Ramsey and Enda Walsh "Die My Love", Bill Condon "Kiss of the Spider Woman", Jack El-Hai and James Vanderbilt "Nuremberg", Mike Flanagan "The Life of Chuck"

Commentary - Hamnet and One Battle After Another have emerged as we head into October as the earliest front runners for the Oscars, across multiple categories. Both, at the moment, feel like locks in this race, and probably the Oscar might end up being between them. The other choices present interesting opportunities for films. No Other Choice, I think, could still emerge as a bigger contender as more people see it, and writers have always had a soft spot for foreign language films. Rian Johnson has yet to miss out on a screenplay not for his Knives Out series, and this one continues to get rave reviews. Finally, Train Dreams, from one of the nominees for Sing Sing last year, is the type of sleeper project to watch out for moving forward. Song Sung Blue is a wild card, Bugonia is weird but liked, Frankenstein is the closest to the original in terms of adaptation, and big projects like Avatar and Wicked cannot be discounted. I think Springsteen is precarious with its mixed reception, Die My Love is probably not a huge contender across the board, and The Life of Chuck, Nuremberg, and Kiss of the Spider Woman have their supporters, but also their detractors. 

Best Original Screenplay

Noah Oppenheim "A House of Dynamite" 

Jafar Panahi "It Was Just an Accident" 

Josh Safdie "Marty Supreme" 

Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt "Sentimental Value"

Ryan Coogler "Sinners"

Other Contenders - Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper "Is This Thing On?", Zach Cregger "Weapons", Kleber Mendonça Filho "The Secret Agent", Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer "Jay Kelly", Hikari and Stephen Blahut "Rental Family", Robert Kaplow "Blue Moon", Benny Safdie "The Smashing Machine", Mary Bronstein "If I Had Legs, I Would Kick You", 

Commentary - This race has less contenders, but I feel like more chance of a shakeup. Sentimental Value is a hit after Cannes, and has not slowed down during the Fall fests. Sinners is still on people's minds, and is set to be a huge Oscar contender. It Was Just an Accident won the Palme d'Or and looks like it is still making a splash. Marty Supreme is a still a big question mark, but the buzz is undeniable. Finally, Katheryn Bigelow is back on the scene with A House of Dynamite, whose script is being celebrated for its tension building. I think I am on the cusp of moving in Is This Thing On? especially considering Bradley Cooper's positive history with the Oscars. Weapons could join Sinners as a genre contender, The Secret Agent has fabulous reviews, and while they got mixed reactions, Jay Kelly and Rental Family definitely still have their fervent supporters. Also watch out for Blue Moon, The Smashing Machine (not a screenplay type of movie), and If I Had Legs, I Would Kick You.