The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Picture and Best Director

Best Picture

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

The Substance

Wicked

Other Contenders - September 5, A Real Pain, Gladiator II, The Room Next Door, Challengers, The Apprentice, Blitz, All We Imagine as Light, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Babygirl, Hard Truths, A Different Man, Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, The Wild Robot, Juror #2, Didi, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga.

Commentary - When you combine BAFTA Longlists, Globes, and Critics Choice, there are some clear favorites: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, and Wicked. The other two that have that distinction are A Complete Unknown and The Substance. I am still weary of The Substance, but BAFTA convinced me to add it in. If SAG goes for it, I will add in the actors as well. That leaves two slots. I am sticking with Nickel Boys (Globe and Critics Choice) and Sing Sing (Critics Choice) for now. But neither are locks by any means. September 5 feels like the kind of smart film voters love, but it has not shown up enough yet (a Globe nod keeps it in the conversation). A Real Pain could slide in, but it needs some help as well. Gladiator II was a smash blockbuster and the sequel to a BP winner, The Room Next Door iunderrated, and we cannot discount The Apprentice, Challenges, Hard Truths, and Different Man. Two foreign films could surprise, especially if their directors make the cut: All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Finally, hoping for a big boost from guilds films like Blitz, Babygirl, Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Furiosa, Did, The Wild Robot, and Juror #2 cannot be discounted yet. 

Best Director

Sean Baker "Anora"

Brady Corbet "The Brutalist"

Edward Berger "Conclave"

Jacques Audiard "Emilia Perez"

Denis Villeneuve "Dune Part II"

Other Contenders - Coralie Fargeat "The Substance", RaMell Ross "Nickel Boys", Jon M. Chu "Wicked", Payal Kapadia "All We Imagine As Light", Mohammad Rasoulof "The Seed of the Sacred Fig", James Mangold "A Complete Unknown", Greg Kwedar "Sing Sing", Luca Guadagnino "Challengers", Luca Guadagnino "Queer", Ridley Scott "Gladiator II", Pedro Almodovar "The Room Next Door"

Commentary - Right now, I feel life four are good to go, Baker, Corbet, Berger, and Audiard. But this is a category that has become a place for surprises, so even they are not really safe. The last slot, I put back in Villeneuve. After he missed out on part one, I haven't been as quick to keep him in the top five. But I am not really sure who gets that slot. Fargeat would be an inspired choice, and a female nominee. But this branch likes heady films, not necessarily dark comedy horror films. In fact genre films have not done as well recently (which negates by Villeneuve pick, I do understand). RaMell Ross would be an inspired pick, and he does fit the bill, but I am concerned about Nickel Boys. Jon M. Chu is a populist choice, but this group has shied from those recently. Payal Kapadia and Mohammad Rasoulof are the kind of directors who have done well recently, but their films are not huge BP contenders. Finally, James Mangold could surprise, and watch out for Kwedar, Guadagnino, Scott, and Almodovar.