The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Picture, Director, Actor and Actress

Best Picture

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune Part II

Emilia Perez

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Wicked

Other Contenders - Sing Sing, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Juror #2, I'm Still Here, All We Imagine as Light, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Challengers, Hard Truths, The Apprentice, A Different Man, Gladiator II, 

Commentary - I feel pretty good about seven of the contenders: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune Part I, Emilia Perez, and Wicked. The last three slots are tricky. After PGA and landing that BAFTA directing nod, I am going with The Substance. I think it is going to get a lot of nods (see below), and despite my hesitations of dark comedy horror getting a BP Nod, it has continued to prove me wrong. The last two slots, I am going lazy and sticking with the PGA ten. A Real Pain feels more solid, with Culkin leading the supporting actor race and PGA and WGA nods. September 5...I have no idea. It will do well with the Jewish voting bloc of the Academy, is a good film, and has snuck into races of ten (including Critics Choice) a few times. I wanted Sing Sing or Nickel Boys to break through, and a lot of folks still have hope. I think Sing Sing is the stronger of the two, but neither has hit enough precursors to make me feel confident. I think there are some dark horses left. Foreign contenders like I'm Still Here, All We Imagine as Light, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig might fare better with the increasingly international Academy than they did with the more populist American guilds. Nosferatu and Gladiator II are going to get a lot of technical nods. If one of them pops into screenplay or director, it could signal their strength. Juror #2 is a great Clint Eastwood movie, and was shoved to the side by WB. Rumor has it that it has a lot more supporters than we initially thought. Outliers like Hard Truths, Challengers, The Apprentice, and A Different Man could also surprise. In a year where there are not a solid ten, expect the unexpected (think A Blind Side and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close). 

Best Director

Sean Baker "Anora"

Brady Corbet "The Brutalist"

Edward Berger "Conclave"

Jacques Audiard "Emilia Perez"

Coralie Fargeat "The Substance"

Other Contenders - Denis Villeneuve "Dune Part II", James Mangold "A Complete Unknown", Payal Kapadia "All We Imagine as Light", Jon M. Chu "Wicked", RaMell Ross "Nickel Boys", Clint Eastwood "Juror #2"

Commentary - Four contenders have hit all the major precursors: Baker, Corbet, Berger, and Audiard. They also all fit into the Director's Branch aesthetic. The last slot is a toss up. The DGA went with Mangold. I would love to see him finally get long overdue recognition, but I feel like A Complete Unknown is too populist for this esoteric group. Denis Villeneuve and Coralie Fargeat made it into the BAFTA six. After Villeneuve was snubbed for Part 1, I wonder if he can make it in this time (did this branch realize the error of their ways?) I think the incredibly stylish, shocking, and dark work of Fargeat will surprise in the fifth slot. Also watch out for Payal Kapadia (Globe nod), Jon M. Chu (Critics Choice), RaMell Ross (a lot of awards, could surprise), and yes the legendary Clint Eastwood. If there is a groundswell of support and it may be his last movie, he could surprise one more time. 

Best Actor

Adrien Brody "The Brutalist"

Timothee Chalamet "A Complete Unknown"

Colman Domingo "Sing Sing"

Ralph Fiennes "Conclave"

Sebastian Stan "The Apprentice"

Other Contenders - Daniel Craig "Queer", Sebastian Stan "A Different Man", Hugh Grant "Heretic"

Commentary - Again, four guys locked, and a toss up fifth slot. Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, and Fiennes all feel safe. I had Daniel Craig forever, and he got the SAG Nod, which was huge. But after Sebastian Stan made it in for The Apprentice at BAFTA, I switch them out. Stan has potential vote splitting with A Different Man, but the political timeliness of that role seems apt for last minute voters. Also watch out for Hugh Grant. He keeps popping up and could surprise for Heretic. 

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo "Wicked"

Karla Sofia Gascon "Emilia Perez"

Mikey Madison "Anora"

Demi Moore "The Substance" 

Fernanda Torres "I'm Still Here"

Other Contenders - Pamela Anderson "The Last Showgirl", Marianne Jean-Baptiste "Hard Truths", Angelina Jolie "Maria"

Commentary - Can you see the theme here? Four have hit every major precursors: Erivo, Gascon, Madison, and Moore. Then there is that intriguing last slot, which I think has four potentials. Pamela Anderson has the story, and SAG And the Globe nods. Plus, with Jamie Lee Curtis a real potential in Supporting, and her incredible campaign, it could bring Pamela with her into the mix. Marianne Jean-Baptiste is fantastic in Hard Truths, and has the BAFTA nod, but that film is just not as strong as it should be at this point. I also think Angelina Jolie could make a comeback. Her film being on Netflix means a lot of folks have seen it, and she is incredibly good in the film. I am going with Fernanda Torres. I think her Globe win, and emotional speech attracted voters to see the film, and she will be one of those rare contenders that can miss a BAFTA and SAG and still grab a slot.