The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jay Cocks and James Mangold "A Complete Unknown"

Peter Straughn "Conclave"

Jacques Audiard "Emilia Perez"

Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield "Sing Sing"

RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes "Nickel Boys"

Other Contenders - Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox "Wicked", Richard Linklater and Glen Powell "Hit Man", Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts "Dune: Part II", Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega "I'm Still Here", Robert Eggers "Nosferatu", Meg LeFauve, Dave Holstein, and Kelsey Mann "Inside Out 2", Chris Sanders "The Wild Robot", Pedro Almodovar "The Room Next Door"

Commentary - WGA threw in some fun ones like Hit Man and Dune: Part II because so many scripts were not eligible. But I think the BAFTA five feels right. Conclave, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Prez are locked. Also, despite missing so many big awards, Sing Sing and Nickel Boys should do well with the writers, which keeps their Best Picture hopes alive. Wicked is flirting with taking a spot, but musicals don't do well in screenplay categories. I'm Still Here has a lot of support, and Torres win put eyeballs on it, but is it enough? Also watch out for Nosferatu, which I think is dark horse Best Picture contender, the animated films and never discount Almodovar.

Best Original Screenplay

Sean Baker "Anora"

Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold "The Brutalist"

Jesse Eisenberg "A Real Pain"

Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David "September 5"

Coralie Fargeat "The Substance"

Other Contenders - Justin Kuritzkes "Challengers", Payal Kapadia "All We Imagine As Light", Alex Garland "Civil War", Megan Park "My Old Ass", Mohammad Rasoulof "The Seed of the Sacred Fig", Mike Leigh "Hard Truths", Rich Peppiatt, Naoise Ó Cairealláin, Liam Óg Ó Hannaidh, and JJ Ó Dochartaigh "Kneecap"

Commentary - Four of the five BAFTA make sense to me. Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, and The Substance. All have done well in this category all year, and all four are Best Picture contenders. The last slot is interesting. Challengers, My Old Ass, and Civil War made the WGA cut due to so many ineligibilities. Of the three Challengers has the best chance, but I just don't think it is as strong as we would have hoped (remember they decided against an Oscar campaign, and it is showing. Also showing is that it is still in the running, meaning a full on campaign might have worked). All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig have been flirting with awards glory all year. If they should strength here, it could signal a BP or BD nod is coming. Hard Truths felt stronger, and Mike Leigh is a favorite of this branch. But when BAFTA passed him over, it was a clear sign that its just not as strong this year. Kneecap got the last BAFTA slot, but that feels like a BAFTA only thing. I am going with September 5. It wasn't eligible at WGA, and it missed at BAFTA. But the PGA Nod shows there is a lot of strength, and I have a hunch it will cross into the top five here. If not, then its BP chances may be slimmer than we thought after PGA.

Best Animated Feature

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl 

The Wild Robot

Other Contenders - Moana 2, Chicken for Linda, That Christmas, Transformers One

Commentary - Four feel locked: Flow, Inside Out 2, W&G, and The Wild Robot. The last slot, most folks are going with Memoir of a Snail. It's right up the alley of this branch, which has always gone its own way and rewarded smaller, quirkier, and foreign films. But Moana 2 just crossed a billion dollars at the worldwide box office, and is a genuine surprise hit, despite mixed reviews. It cannot be discounted.

Best Documentary Feature

Black Box Diaries

Daughters

No Other Land

Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

Sugarcane

Other Contenders - Will & Harper, Dahomey, Porcelain War, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, The Bibi Files, Union

Commentary - I never get this category right, so beware. No Other Land is leading most of the awards. Daughters and Sugarcane have also done well on the circuit. I think the originality of Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat will appeal to this branch. In the last slot I am torn between Dahomey, Black Box Diaries, and some of the others. I also wonder about Will & Harper. The fact that it made it to the shortlists is kind of amazing, considering feel good celebrity films often miss even that mark. It also has BAFTA behind it, which is saying something. I don't want to give the film hope with this branch often going its own way. I am sticking with Black Box Diaries, but I do not feel confident. 

Best International Feature

Emilia Perez (France)

How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)

I'm Still Here (Brazil)

Kneecap (Ireland)

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

Other Contenders - Flow (Latvia), Vermiglio (Italy), The Girl with the Needle (Denmark), From Ground Zero (Palestine), Armand (Norway)

Commentary - This is another tough one. Emilia Perez and I'm Still Here seemed locked, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig has had a lot of buzz. Kneecap is a huge BAFTA favorite, which I think translates to the Oscars. In the last slot, I am tempted to go with Flow (a huge Animated Feature contender) and Vermiglio. But I am hearing a lot of support for How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies. What the heck, I'm going for it.