The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress

Best Picture

Will Win - Oppenheimer

Could Win - American Fiction, The Holdovers, Anatomy of a Fall, Poor Things

Should Win - Oppenheimer, The Holdovers, or Barbie

Commentary - After so many years of splits or arguing about who would win Best Picture, the last two have been relatively straightforward. Oppenheimer has won everything. PGA, SAG, DGA, BAFTA, Globe, most of the technical guilds, most of the critics groups. It has swept in a way that is undeniable. It hits the rare trifecta as well. It is beloved by critics, well-liked by the industry, and was part of the Barbenhemier box office phenomenon, grossing almost a billion dollars worldwide. It will win in a walk. 

Best Director

Will Win - Christopher Nolan "Oppenheimer"

Could Win - Justine Triet "Anatomy of A Fall" 

Should Win - Christopher Nolan "Oppenheimer"

Commentary - Another lock you can bank on is Christopher Nolan finally winning the Best Director Oscar. He is incredibly well deserving of this honor, He is one of the finest directors working today, and many of his films, Memento, The Dark Knight, Inception, Dunkirk, and now Oppenheimer, will long be remembered for their brilliance, ambition, and for the way they elevated the craft of film. Oppenheimer might be Nolan's magnum opus, and the Academy will reward him for it tomorrow night. 

Best Actor

Will Win - Cillian Murphy "Oppenheimer"

Could Win - Paul Giamatti "The Holdovers"

Should Win - Paul Giamatti "The Holdovers"

Commentary - I had hoped, and through for a brief moment, that this was going to be Paul Giamatti's year to finally get his overdue recognition. But, after winning the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA, Cillian Murphy (who is fantastic, I'm not mad at all. A great actor in a great film) is going to win his first Oscar. 

Best Actress

Will Win - Emma Stone "Poor Things"

Could Win - Lily Gladstone "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Should Win - Lily Gladstone "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Commentary - This is the one acting race that is a real nail-biter to the finish. Emma Stone won the BAFTA and Globe. Lily Gladstone won the Globe and SAG. Stone broke the tie with Critics Choice. In the BAFTA/SAG split we have seen it flip flop a lot over the last decade or so. Last year, Michelle Yeoh won SAG, Cate Blanchett won BAFTA, Yeoh took the Oscar. In 2020 Viola Davis won SAG, Francis McDormand won BAFTA, McDormand won the Oscar. In 2018, Glenn Close won SAG, Olivia Colman won BAFTA, Colman won the Oscar. In 2012 Jennifer Lawrence won SAG, Emmanuelle Riva won BAFTA, Lawrence won the Oscar. The back and forth goes on. I am leaning towards Emma Stone. I think the film is overall stronger, and her performance has more screen time. My head says stone, but my heart says Gladstone, who will make history, was brilliant, and would be a wonderful win for a great indie actor. We'll have to wait and see, but I am leaning towards Stone at the moment. 

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win - Robert Downey Jr. "Oppenheimer"

Could Win - Ryan Gosling "Barbie"

Should Win - Robert Downey Jr. "Oppenheimer"

Commentary - Robert Downey Jr. has won all the major precursors for his great performance in Oppenheimer. It also helps that he is also at his "career Oscar" point, where voters are ready to recognize a well overdue veteran movie star. 

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win - Da'Vine Joy Randolph "The Holdovers"

Could Win - Emily Blunt "Oppenheimer"

Should Win - Da'Vine Joy Randolph "The Holdovers"

Commentary - The biggest lock of the night. One of the best performances of the year has swept everything (I mean everything) from day one of this Oscar season. A well-deserved Oscar will be the end to her Cinderella story.