The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Original Score, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects, and Shorts

Best Original Score

Will Win - Ludwig Göransson "Oppenheimer"

Could Win - Robbie Robertson "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Should Win - Ludwig Göransson "Oppenheimer"

Commentary - Göransson's monumental achievement in Oppenheimer has been sweeping every major precursor it can. I think it wins in a walk.

Best Original Song

Will Win - Barbie - What Was I Made For?

Could Win - Barbie - I'm Just Ken

Should Win - Barbie - What Was I Made For?

Commentary -  What Was I Made For? won at the Globes with three Barbie songs nominated. It won the Grammy for Song of the Year, and is the emotional core of the film's finale. I'm Just Ken could surprise for being the fun one of the bunch, but I think Billie Eilish and Finneas win their second Oscar. 

Best Sound

Will Win - Oppenheimer

Could Win - The Zone of Interest

Should Win - The Zone of Interest

Commentary - After BAFTA, this is one of the more compelling and interesting technical categories. I think The Zone of Interest would be a unique and worthy choice here, as the sound, while not as obvious, really plays in the entire message of the film in a brilliant way. But Oscar voters like a lot of Sound, Top Gun, Dune, Ford v. Ferrari, 1917, etc. Sound of Metal, which won during the pandemic year, gives us a bit of look into the possibility that a loud, clanging movie can win, but it is kind of an anomaly. I am going with the more obvious choice of Oppenheimer, which won at CAS and MPSE, and will be pleasantly surprised at an upset. 

Best Visual Effects

Will Win -  The Creator

Could Win - Godzilla Minus One, Mission:Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1

Should Win - Godzilla Minus One

Commentary - Four out of the five BAFTA nominees crossed over, except the winner, Poor Things. This means that none of those four are particularly strong across the board. The other problem though is that the last Oscar winner to miss a BAFTA nod was What Dreams May Come in 1998. That is long streak to break. I want Godzilla Minus One to win, and I'm hoping that I am completely wrong here. But I think that one of those four will win, and The Creator, which is the most heady of the bunch (think Tenet, Interstellar), and has another nod in Sound (hard to win a solo winner), will win instead.

Best Animated Short

Will Win - WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Could Win - Ninety-Five Senses or Letter to a Pig

Should Win - WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Best Documentary Short

Will Win - The Last Repair Shop

Could Win - The ABC's of Book Banning

Should Win - The ABC's of Book Banning or The Last Repair Shop

Best Live Action Short

Will Win - The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Could Win - Red, White and Blue

Should Win - The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar