The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win - Cord Jefferson "American Fiction"

Could Win - Christopher Nolan "Oppenheimer" or Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach "Barbie"

Should Win - Cord Jefferson "American Fiction"

Commentary - When American Fiction won at BAFTA over Oppenheimer, that probably should have ended the race, still with the chance, now much smaller chance, of this category getting swept up in an Oppenheimer sweep. But neither film as faced Barbie before, which did well with screenplay awards early on when it was in Original. Also, with the "Greta was snubbed" momentum, she could upset in this category. I am sticking with American Fiction, but keep your eyes out for this one. 

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari "Anatomy of a Fall"

Could Win - David Hemingson "The Holdovers"

Should Win - Celine Song "Past Lives"

Commentary - This race is probably tighter than most people think. Anatomy of a Fall came in strong after the Oscar nominations and won at BAFTA. So I moved it in. It just feels like folks want this film to win something, and this is the logical category to do so. But The Holdovers has won a lot of screenplay awards, and has its passionate followers. 

Best Animated Feature

Will Win - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Could Win - The Boy and the Heron

Should Win - The Boy and the Heron

Commentary - Two amazing films are vying for the win here. I am going with the more populist choice of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. But after its BAFTA win, I am really considering moving The Boy and the Heron into the top spot. I personally would love this, just to see Hayao Miyazaki win another Oscar, but I think Spider-Man will eek it out at the finish line. 

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win - 20 Days in Mariupol

Could Win - Four Daughters

Should Win - The Eternal Memory

Commentary - Like Nalvany last year, the timeliness of 20 Days in Mariupol will, I think, easily beat out the competition. 

Best International Feature

Will Win - The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Could Win - Society of the Snow (Spain)

Should Win - The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Commentary - Without Anatomy of a Fall in competition here, I think it's a safe bet to go with the only film of the bunch also nominated for Picture, Director and Screenplay.