Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick...boom!
West Side Story
Other Contenders -Being the Ricardos, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Tragedy of Macbeth, House of Gucci, The French Dispatch
Commentary - I think eight films are locked and loaded: Belfast, CODA, Don't Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. Based on guild showings, these would probably have been the nominees in the previous years system of 5-10 contenders. The last two slots are a mess. Being the Ricardos has done better than expected across the board, but I just feel like it will be relegated to a few categories. The Lost Daughter has been flirting with Oscar success, and I feel like it could surprise. Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and The French Dispatch are craft category favorites. No Time to Die and Spider-Man: No Way Home could be the blockbuster choices. Finally, House of Gucci cannot be discounted. But I am going with tick,tick...boom! which I feel like is a film with a passionate fan base (which helps in this phase), and Drive My Car. The membership has become a lot more international in recent years, and this film was a huge critical favorite.
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"
Ryusuke Hamaguchi "Drive My Car"
Denis Villeneuve "Dune"
Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"
Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"
Other Contenders - Steven Spielberg "West Side Story", Adam McKay "Don't Look Up", Guillermo Del Toro "Nightmare Alley"
Commentary - The DGA five almost always loses a member at the Oscars. In recent years it has been a BAFTA nominated director of an international feature. I expect the same to happen here with Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car. Unfortunately, I think Spielberg gets knocked out, but it could be Branagh or Villeneuve. Also watch out for Adam McKay and Guillermo Del Toro, past favorites in this category.
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