The Oscar Narrative: First 2022 Winner Predictions

Best Picture

The Power of the Dog

Commentary - The Power of the Dog led the nomination pack, and overperformed by most pundits' standards. It also clearly has the across the board support that films like Parasite, Nomadland, and The Shape of Water had, aka the actors, the directors, the writers, and the technical branches. In confusing years like when Moonlight, Green Book, Spotlight one, it was the actors/writers movie vs. the directors movie. The Power of the Dog has all the magic components. And yet, I don't think it is a slam dunk. I think Campion is a slam dunk for Director, and probably screenplay. But this film is not loveable. It doesn't make you feel good, it doesn't have quite the emotional heft of films like Green Book, Nomadland, The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, aka the films that have conquered the magical and elusive preferential ballot. I think this helps Belfast and King Richard, both of which also did well with nominations, and are the types of films that may land more in the 2-4 range than The Power of the Dog. 

Best Director

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Commentary - Unless DGA or BAFTA throw a curveball, this is Campion's to lose. She is such a talented director, has dominated the circuit so far, and is a beloved veteran. I think she needs to get her Oscar speech ready. 

Best Actor

Will Smith "King Richard"

Commentary - When tick, tick...boom! missed Best Picture, I kind of moved Andrew Garfield down a notch. It's not that actors can't win for non-Best Picture nominees, it happens all the time. But that film did really well on the circuit, and kind of underperformed. Benedict Cumberbatch is in the Best Picture front runner and gives a dynamic performance. But I feel like Will Smith, at least at this moment, is poised to finally take an Oscar. He is overdue, gives a fantastic performance, and is extremely popular in the industry. It is a close race to the finish line. 

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Commentary - I have no idea. That is now I have to start this conversation. I really have no idea. Kristen Stewart could win Critics Choice, and BAFTA is now moot. So does it come down to SAG? Without Stewart, is it indicative? Kidman won the Globe, and Being the Ricardos is obviously a favorite of the acting branch, the largest branch. But the film underperformed everywhere else. Maybe the rest of the Academy is not in love with the film? The Lost Daughter did well, got Jessie Buckley in, and screenplay. She is probably the obvious choice. But will they go for her so soon again? Ask Dianne Wiest, Christoph Waltz, Tom Hanks, and others that won Oscars really close together. The answer is definitely yes. I am, right now, sticking with Jessica Chastain. She is the most overdue of the bunch (with Kidman, Cruz, and Colman already Oscar winners, and Stewart only on the first nomination. Chastain now has 3), plays a larger than life character, and has done surprisingly well with critics. 

Best Supporting Actor

Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Commentary - Everyone is predicting Kodi Smit-McPhee, as he was the critical darling, and in the Best Picture front runner. But I think two things could complicate his winning. First, he now has internal competition with Jesse Plemmons, who is a beloved veteran at this point. Second, his performance is understated, odd, and has a interesting ending. Troy Kotsur's performance in CODA makes you want to stand up and cheer. That film, such a feel-good favorite, is the kind of film that inspires. I think he surprises at SAG, and then surprises at the Oscar podium. 

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Commentary - Unless SAG and BAFTA throw us for a loop (I suspect they won't), DeBose is the clear front runner. Kirsten Dunst and Aunjanue Ellis are the spoilers.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Best Original Screenplay

Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Best Animated Feature

Encanto

Best Documentary Feature

Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not be Televised)

Best Foreign Language Film

Drive My Car (Japan)

Best Cinematography

Dune

Best Costume Design

Cruella

Best Film Editing

Don't Look Up

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Original Score

Hans Zimmer "Dune"

Best Original Song

Encanto - Dos Oruguitas

Best Production Design

Dune

Best Sound

Dune

Best Visual Effects

Dune

Best Animated Short

Robin Robin

Best Documentary Short

The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short

The Long Goodbye