Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch "The Power of the Dog"
Leonardo DiCaprio "Don't Look Up"
Andrew Garfield "tick, tick...boom!"
Will Smith "King Richard"
Denzel Washington "The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Other Contenders - Javier Bardem "Being the Ricardos", Peter Dinklage "Cyrano", Nicholas Cage "Pig"
Commentary - Four of the five are locked and loaded. Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington are all in, in a race that will be fun to watch between the four. The last slot is interesting. Javier Bardem got the SAG nod, a slot I expected Leonardo DiCaprio to take. Then DiCaprio got a BAFTA nod. This is a close race. I switched to DiCaprio. Don't Look Up is clearly popular, he is one of the most rewarded actors in recent history, and I think he will take the last slot. Also watch out for Dinklage and Cage, although if they were going to make a move, it might be too late to do so.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
Olivia Colman "The Lost Daughter"
Lady Gaga "House of Gucci"
Alana Haim "Licorice Pizza"
Nicole Kidman "Being the Ricardos"
Other Contenders - Jennifer Hudson "Respect", Penelope Cruz "Parallel Mothers", Rachel Zegler "West Side Story", Kristen Stewart "Spencer"
Commentary - This race is such a toss up. I really don't know if anyone is safe. I could literally see any of my predicted five getting replaced with the four other contenders. Olivia Colman missed out at BAFTA, a shock considering she is British. But I think she is so popular right now with American audiences. Nicole Kidman also missed out at BAFTA, but again, I thinks he has enough support across the pond. Gaga is the only contender that got all of the major precursors, so she feels safe. But House of Gucci has underperformed after the SAG triumph. Jessica Chastain could win, if she gets in, but that film has had a muted response other than her and the makeup. Finally, after BAFTA, I put in Alana Haim, especially as Licorice Pizza continues to rise. But will the newcomer beat more seasoned professionals? The answer is unknown until they unveil the five. Jennifer Hudson got SAG, is a previous winner, and has the narrative. Kristen Stewart was the front runner, but SAG and BAFTA snubs are hurting. Can she pull it off at the end? My guess is no, but don't discount her. Rachel Zegler is another one that has missed a lot, but if West Side Story surges, her breakthrough role could pull through. Finally, a lot of folks are predicting Penelope Cruz to overcomer her many snubs, and make it through. The Academy has become more international in recent years, Almodovar and Cruz are legends, and the film is fantastic. But that film has yet to pop up anywhere. I don't know if it can pull off a last minute miracle.
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper "Licorice Pizza"
Mike Faist "West Side Story"
Ciaran Hinds "Belfast"
Troy Kotsur "CODA"
Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog"
Other Contenders - Jared Leto "House of Gucci", Jesse Plemmons "The Power of the Dog", Ben Affleck "The Tender Bar"
Commentary - As soon as Ben Affleck was announced as a SAG nominee for The Tender Bar, I knew he would probably not make the Oscar final cut. Make no mistake, he is still in this race, but I feel like better films will prevail. I gave that slot to Ciaran Hinds, who rebounded from the SAG snub with a BAFTA nomination. Kodi Smit-McPhee and Troy Kotsur are the only locks, and both have hit all the major precursors. Bradley Cooper's SAG nod was a big step for a small role. I think his popularity and the popularity of Licorice Pizza will propel him to the top five. Finally, I have kept Jared Leto for House of Gucci in for a long time, but something tells me that someone else my take his slot. BAFTA nominated Jesse Plemmons and Mike Faist. Faist seems to have a passionate support, and he gives the bigger, bolder performance. I think he may surprise.
Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe "Belfast"
Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"
Kirsten Dunst "The Power of the Dog"
Aunjanue Ellis "King Richard"
Ruth Negga "Passing"
Other Contenders - Jessie Buckley "The Lost Daughter", Ann Dowd "Mass", Cate Blanchett "Nightmare Alley", Marlee Matlin "CODA", Rita Moreno "West Side Story"
Commentary - Ariana DeBose and Caitriona Balfe feel safe, having hit all the major precursors. Ruth Negga has also hit them as well, but Passing is not as strong as Belfast or West Side Story. Kirsten Dunst missed as BAFTA, but I think she is strong enough to pull through. The last slot feels up in the air. SAG went with Cate Blanchett, but that feels like a SAG Nod that doesn't cross over. BAFTA went for Ellis, Buckley, and Dowd, and Matlin and Moreno are Oscar winning legends. I am going with Aunjanue Ellis. King Richard is stronger across the board than most folks realize, and I think her performance is powerful. But that slot could surprise.
No comments:
Post a Comment