The Oscar Narrative: Final 2022 Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sian Heder "CODA"

Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe "Drive My Car"

Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve "Dune"

Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter"

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Other Contenders - Guillermo Del Toro "Nightmare Alley", Steven Levenson "tick, tick...boom!", Tony Kushner "West Side Story"

Commentary -  BAFTA lined up my expectations for this category pretty well. The Lost Daugher, The Power of the Dog, and Drive My car were not eligible for the WGA. Both CODA and Dune crossed over both voting bodies, so I expected they will snag slots. tick, tick...boom! and West Side Story would have to overcome a bias towards musicals, and Nightmare Alley has faltered lately. I expect the BAFTA support for the three ineligible contenders will carry them to Oscar contention. A lot of folks are not picking Dune, but WGA and BAFTA shows a lot of love from the writers. If it misses out, expect Kushner to take that final slot. 

Best Original Screenplay

Aaron Sorkin "Being the Ricardos"

Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Adam McKay "Don't Look Up"

Zach Baylin "King Richard"

Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Other Contenders - Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers", Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola & Hugo Guinness & Jason Schwartzman "The French Dispatch", Asghar Farhadi "A Hero", Mike Mills "C'mon C'mon", Fran Krantz for Mass. 

Commentary - Again, I am going with the BAFTA five, which have been my five for awhile. The WGA put in The French Dispatch, but that was because Belfast was ineligible. The other four crossed WGA and BAFTA. The writers though have been known to throw curveballs, so watch out for Almodovar, a previous screenwriting winner, Anderson and crew (a WGA nod is indicative), Farhadi, Mills, and Fran Krantz for Mass.