The Oscar Narrative: First 2022 Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

First 2022 Nomination Predictions

CODA

Don't Look Up

Dune

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson

Untitled David O. Russell

West Side Story

Other Contenders - Tick Tick....Boom!, Being the Richardos, King Richard, Belfast, Flee, Spencer, The French Dispatch, The Hand of God, A Hero, C'Mon C'Mon, Cry Macho, The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, Passing, Parallel Mothers, Mass, In the Heights, Dear Evan Hansen, Zola, The Lost Daughter, Cyrano, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Harder They Fall, Red Rocket, The Green Knight, Mothering Sunday, Respect, Bruised, Black Widow, Cruella, A Quiet Place Part II, Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Velvet Underground, The Tender Bar, Eternals, Blue Bayou, Candyman, The Many Saints of Newark, No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Luca, The Mitchells vs. The Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon, Encanto, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Matrix 4

Commentary - Venice starts this week, and over the next two months or so, the Oscar race is going to go from a lot of speculation to a contender tsunami. I will, of course, do a post-festival update to my prediction, because it always changes after the major festivals. I am starting with the big names. Steven Spielberg is remaking West Side Story, which could either be great or pale in comparison. Spielberg doesn't make a lot of bad movies, so I am leaning towards the former. CODA is quickly rising in the ranks, and being compared to feel good comedies like Little Miss Sunshine, that found an audience with Oscar voters. Marlee Matlin was recently on CBS Sunday Morning, and there has been a lot of press and buzz. This Sundance favorite could be a contender throughout the fall. Adam McKay has been a favorite recently, and is pairing up with Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep, Timothee Chalamet, and Cate Blanchet. Guillermo Del Toro's first major film since The Shape of Water won Best Picture, Nightmare Alley is going to be one to watch. David O. Russell is teaming up with an all-star cast for his upcoming untitled work. He is hoping this is Silver Living Playbook and not Joy. Jane Campion returns with her first film in over a decade with a great cast. There is a lot of buzz surrounding the project. Dune, of course, looks like this year's genre piece that will breakthrough, Paul Thomas Anderson's last film Phantom Thread did surprisingly well with voters, and House of Gucci looks like an entertaining film that could be a huge contender. Finally, The Tragedy of Macbeth could be the one to beat. Those ten though, have a lot of challengers. Lin-Manuel Miranda's directorial debut, Joe Wright's latest, Being the Richardos, King Richard, Flee, Spencer, The Hand of God, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, A Hero, and Belfast all are Oscar bait. Other indie and foreign contenders include Annette, Passin, Mass, The Lost Daughter, Bruised, Last Night in Soho, Red Rocket, Mothering Sunday, The Velvet Underground, The Tender Bar, Zola, Blue Bayou, The French Dispatch and C'Mon, C'Mon are waiting in the wings. Finally, big blockbuster films, animated films, and genre pieces like In the Heights, Dear Evan Hansen, The Last Duel, The Green Knight, Respect, Cruella, A Quiet Place Part II, Candyman, Shang Chi, The Many Saints of Newark, Ghostbuster: Afterlife, Halloween Kills, Luca, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Spider-Man, Encanto, The Matrix 4, No Time to Die, and last, but certainly not least, Chloe Zhao's return, Eternals, are hoping Oscar voters notice them in a year where people started going back to theaters.