Will Win - Parasite
Could Win - 1917, Jojo Rabbit, or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Commentary - So 1917 feels like this year's The Revenant, or La La Land. It does not have any acting nominations, it didn't get one SAG nomination. No film has won without at least something. Parasite does have any other nominations either, but it won the SAG ensemble. 1917 is the visual visionary film. Is it the preferential ballot film as well? I'm just not sure. But no foreign language film has ever won Best Picture. Ever. But Parasite feels different. It is just so well-received, and you hear voter after voter talking about this film. Of course, you also have those older voters who cannot fathom voting for a foreign language film in Best Picture. So, here is my answer: I have no freaking idea. Conventional wisdom says 1917. Preferential politics favors films like Jojo Rabbit, which is the feel good film, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which is the film about the film industry, or Parasite, the film that has taken this industry by storm. I don't know what's going to win, and I'm sure the second they read 1917, I'll know I was wrong to take a shot. But I think Oscar voters are going to make history, and reward Parasite Best Picture of the year.
Will Win - Sam Mendes "1917"
Could Win - Bong Joon Ho "Parasite"
Should Win - Quentin Tarantino "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Commentary - Whatever happens in Best Picture, I think that the BAFTA, DGA, and Globe wins for Sam Mendes show that he is way out front in this category. His film is the visual spectacular of the year, and that has won now seven years, most likely eight, years in a row.