Monday, February 3, 2020

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects

Best Cinematography
Will Win - Roger Deakins "1917"
Could Win - Robert Richardson "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Should Win - Roger Deakins "1917"
Commentary - After finally winning an Oscar, it looks like Deakins will quickly add another to his shelf. I cannot imagine anyone beating him at this point, especially after winning the ASC and BAFTA, but watch out for Richardson, who is seeking his fourth for his beautiful work in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Best Costume Design
Will Win - Little Women
Could Win - Jojo Rabbit or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win - Little Women
Commentary - Jojo Rabbit upset at the CDG awards, and it makes me think this is a really tight race. However, Little Women was not nominated there, and has picked up steam since it missed out on those earlier awards. It beat Jojo head to head at BAFTA, and I think voters will want to reward the film somewhere, especially now that Adapted Screenplay seems to be slipping away from Gerwig.

Best Film Editing
Will Win - Parasite
Could Win - Ford v. Ferrari or Jojo Rabbit
Should Win - Ford v Ferrari
Commentary - Another tough one. Parasite and Jojo Rabbit win at the ACE Eddies, then Ford v. Ferrari wins at the BAFTA. Almost every split year, it is one of these awards that determines the winner. I am sticking with Parasite. Yes, Ford v Ferrari was able to get a Best Picture nod with little fanfare, but I think the passion for Parasite will give it this win on its way to bigger ones.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win - Bombshell
Could Win - Joker or Judy
Should Win - Bombshell
Commentary - If Joker is really popular, it could pop up here, although it really shouldn't. Maybe Judy gets a nod as well, especially since this category has been paired with lead acting wins in recent memory. But in all honesty, I would be shocked if anything other than Bombshell won here. Charlize Theron's transformation alone is worthy.

Best Production Design
Will Win - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win - 1917 or Parasite
Should Win - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Commentary - 1917 just won at BAFTA and Once just won at the ADG. I think Oscar voters are going to appreciate the wow sets that were created for Once over the barren landscape, with a few punctuated set pieces, of 1917. But it will be a close race to watch.

Best Visual Effects
Will Win - 1917
Could Win - The Irishman or Avengers: Endgame
Should Win - Avengers: Endgame
Commentary - Most people will predict the Avengers, but remember this category has recently stayed away from big blockbusters that weren't nominated for Best Picture. They love Best Picture nominees or more prestigious picks (like Ex Machina, First Man, and Interstellar), over the big flashy blockbusters. The Irishman could surprise, as it might be the only place that it can win at this point. But my guess is that 1917, which is a bigger Best Picture contender, takes the win instead.

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