Will Win - Tony Shalhoub "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
Could Win - Henry Winkler "Barry" or Alan Arkin "The Kominsky Method"
Should Win - Shalhoub
Commentary - Henry Winkler finally won an Emmy award last year. He could easily win a second one, but he has a few obstacles in his way. First, his win this year would not have the same buzz or historic importance that it did last year. Now that he has won, voters don't feel that pressure to reward him again. Also, this year, he has two internal competitors with Stephen Root and Anthony Carrigan. You can easily win with one co-star, it is a lot harder to win with two. So who takes the spot? If The Kominsky Method had done better across the board, I might be more willing to pick Alan Arkin. He could win this, no doubt, but the show is clearly not as beloved by Emmy voters as it was by Golden Globe voters. Instead, I am falling back on Tony Shalhoub. He is a three-time winner, just won the SAG Award this year (beating both Winkler and Arkin), and his show is probably the biggest contender overall of the three shows. It's not an easy race, but I think Shalhoub will pull it off.