Best Limited Series
Will Win - When They See Us
Could Win - Chernobyl, Fosse/Verdon, or Escape at Dannemora
Should Win - When They See Us or Chernobyl
Commentary - With the exception of Sharp Objects (no writing or directing nominations hurt it), I think this is much tighter race than most folks think. Yes, the initial impression out of nominations was that When They See Us is unstoppable. So many surprise nominations across the categories shows unmatched strength. This is why I am picking it to win. I also think that it is relevant, politically aligned with most voters, and has all of the buzz. But I would not discount a surprise upset. Fosse/Verdon also surprised in a lot of categories, and did extremely well in the technical categories showing below the line support. Chernobyl was the most critically acclaimed of the bunch (although all five were critical favorites), and Escape at Dannemora was at one point a huge front runner. I think When They See Us will pull it off, but I'm not going to be jaw-dropped if something else upsets in this incredibly competitive category.
Best Television Movie
Will Win - Deadwood: The Movie
Could Win - Bandersnatch: Black Mirror
Should Win - Deadwood: The Movie
Commentary - Can Black Mirror win again? Of course it can. Netflix is pushing it hard, and it does have a history in this category. Of course it shouldn't. Bandersnatch was a gimmick that did not wholly pay off, and this new season was just dreadful. Instead, I think voters will reward the return of Deadwood. The film got rave reviews, was a wonderful conclusion for fans of the show, and was well-liked when the original show was on. I think Emmy voters will want to reward a series they never gave any wins to, and if quality matters, it will win in a walk.